Thursday, August 03, 2006

Kevin Drum's Calculator Finger is Sticky

Kevin Drum, discussing the estate tax exemption, says:

"Think of it: in terms of actual purchasing power, that $10 million exemption could easily decline to $9.5 million, or even $9 million" over the next nine years.

Hoo boy, in your dreams, Kevin. At an inflation rate of 5 percent per year, the purchasing power value of $10 million falls to $6.5 million in nine years. At 3 percent, about $7.7 million. At 10 percent, about $4.2 million.

Okay, so we've never had inflation of 10 percent a year over a 10-year period. But If the value falls only to $9.5 million, we have an implied annual rate of about six tenths of one percent. And pigs will fly before we have that one, too.

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