Nearly everybody who keeps on politics, keeps up on Charlie Cook. And I don't know anybody who thinks he is a partisan.
Here's Charlie on you-know-what:
If you put the pictures of every Republican governor in the country on a dartboard and thrown a dart, the chances of a better selection might be higher
But It's Not the Base: Charlie again, on what McCain can hope for from the woman a heartbeat away:
Clearly, concerns about the base drove this decision. But it would appear that Palin's selection was driven more by fear of alienating the base by choosing a Lieberman or Ridge than by the need to put starch in the shorts of party members. McCain has consistently polled stronger among Republicans than Barack Obama has among Democrats. Although many Republicans don't particularly love McCain and might not run full speed to the polls, they'll likely show up out of disdain for Democrats and Obama. Four years ago, Republicans were running roughly even with Democrats in party identification. Today, they are somewhere between 7 (NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll) and 13 (Pew poll) points behind. The question seems to be, "Can Palin help McCain get the lion's share of independents?" and not, "Can she solidify his base?"
Required Homework Assignment: Michael O'Hare on
Craps v. Poker.
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