Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Metrics? We'll Show You Metrics!

Or, Calculated Risk will show you metrics, and we will rip them off:
It seems these indicators are stuck ...

  • The three month LIBOR declined slightly to 2.17% from 2.22%. The three-month LIBOR rate peaked (for this cycle) at 4.81875% on Oct. 10. (slightly better)

  • The yield on 3 month treasuries increased to 0.105% from 0.14%. (worse). Close to zero again!

    With the effective Fed Funds rate at 0.37% (as of yesterday), this is probably somewhat in the right range. At some point, I'd like to see the effective Fed funds rate close to the target rate (currently 1.0%) and the 3 month yield within 25 bps of the target rate.

    But for now, the Fed is engaged in quantitative easing.

  • The TED spread: 2.07, down slightly from 2.10 (unchanged)

    The TED spread is stuck above 2.0, and still too high. The peak was 4.63 on Oct 10th. I'd like to see the spread move back down to 1.0 or lower. A normal spread is around 0.5.

  • The two year swap spread from Bloomberg: 105.30, up slightly from 104.25 (unchanged). This spread peaked at near 165 in early October, so there has been significant progress, but I'd like to see this below 100. ...
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