Tuesday, January 13, 2009

More Bad News

Nouriel Roubini is one of those who was most notoriously correct in calling the downturn ("If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs..."). He has now released his outlook out for 2009 and he ain't happy:
It is clear that 2008 was a dismal year for the economy and financial markets year and it is now official that the current U.S. recession started already in December 2007. So, how far are we into this recession that has already lasted longer than the previous two (the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions lasted 8 months each)? We forecast that the U.S. economy is only half way through a recession that will be the longest and most severe in the post war period. U.S. GDP will continue to contract throughout all of 2009 for a cumulative output loss of 5% and a recession that will thus last about two years. Our forecast is much worse than the current consensus forecast expecting a growth recovery in the second half of 2009; we also predict significantly weak growth recovery – well below potential - in 2010

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