Prognostication Update

Back from hanging out with a bunch of bankruptcy lawyers where I listened to a forecaster who left a couple of takeaway points:

• Three industries likely to get a lion's share of bailout money: health care, government, environment. These are three industries where employment is already pretty high, i.e., where qualified employees are not hurting.

• Some companies are doing just fine. Like who? Like somebody in every industry. In every industry, one-two-three industry leaders is/are doing okay, remain strong, and will be able to grow and consolidate a position in the current turmoil (does that include auto?).
  

• Housing is back at a trend line that fits the data for 2004. Ignoring the last couple of years, and recognizing that it will take some time to digest the surplus inventory, we can move up from here.

• Not all financial markets look dreadful. But markets for high-risk debt look really, really dreadful.

• It's going to take time.
  

I'm always impressed that for a room with so many $2,000 suits, there seem to be (a) a lot of Democrats; and (b) a whole lot of pathologically conservative investors.