How Long Does He Get?

Charlie Cook asks the question any reflective Democrat will have to be asking--and offers a not-so-optimistic answer:

At what point will the public blame the recession on Obama instead of Bush?

by Charlie Cook

Saturday, Feb. 21, 2009

The relentlessly bad economic news in recent days raises an important political question: How long does former President Bush keep ownership of this recession?

At this stage, voters have no doubt that the recession started on his watch. Yet plenty of blame deserves to be laid at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, and that blame extends to administrations of both parties, not to mention government-supported enterprises and mortgage companies.

In political terms, voters have dumped the blame into Bush's lap. But, at some point along the way, if this recession lasts very long, its ownership will transfer to President Obama. ...

Should the recession last twice as long as the worst downturns since the Great Depression, or 32 months, it would extend into July 2010, or just over three months before the 2010 midterm elections. And although Bush still has ownership of the recession today, at some point next year, if the economy has not clearly bottomed out and started improving, ownership would transfer to Obama. All of the new president's actions would have had a year and a half to have worked. And if they haven't by then, he would begin to get the blame.

Statistically, so long as most of the remaining financial institutions hold together, one would certainly expect this recession to be coming to a conclusion at least by mid-2010. But, that proviso about financial institutions and their assets is the key. Their troubles are largely what's making this downturn deeper and tougher than normal.

Cook also says that "about the only intelligent thing Republicans have done since election day" is (ta da) the selection of Michael Steeele as Party Chair. Boy, if that is the best they can do...