Showing posts with label Annuities. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Annuities. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Explaining the Annuity Gimmick

 [Meta note: this post would have been up a while ago were it not for AT&T's "improved" DSL service.]

I must have my bluetooth on stun.  Tonight I caught the podcast of lat week's This American Life (cf. link) where they talked about the guy in Rhode Island who bought annuities on the dying and now finds himself facing a 66-count indictment.  It's a great piece but I didn't hear anybody clarify what seems to me to be the underlying issue here--rather two different issues.   

One, the policy.  Here's an annuity with a cherry on top: a guaranteed payout at death.  The core business makes sense.  The company is playing the spread.  They plan to make money on the difference between what they collect investing and what they have to pay on the annuity.   The guy who buys the package has to accept a low rate of return.  But otherwise it's heads I win, tails you lose.

Apparently the trouble is that somebody forgot about the prospect that the customer might die too soon.  That would mean you don't have enough time to collect on the spread, and you still have to make the final payout.    That is, nobody thought to write in a clause saying  you had to prove you were in good health at the time of purchase, or that you had live for a year, maybe two, maybe three, before you'd earned the right  to the final payoff.  So  far, this is just bad underwriting, or bad lawyering, or both (surprise: they've changed the terms of the contract).

This is where our hero steps in.  He figures that if he can get policies on the aged and the infirm, he can make a bundle gambling with the insurance company's money.   So he signs up a bunch of wrinklies and crumblies.  He gives them some cash, maybe a couple of thou, all they have to do is sign.  To listen to the podcast, you'd have to infer that the customers (or their survivors) were delighted with the deal: for them, it looked like free money.

Well.  Delighted, at least until the prosecutor came round and drummed it into much more money the seller had made.  Now is the time when they (or at least some--not all) are ready to turn state's evidence.

It seems to me that this is issue #2, conceptually unrelated to the bad-underwriting problem above.  Evidently the defendant thinks he can show that he never misled anybody, that he never concealed anything, that he promised them money for the signature, and that he kept his promise.

I'll bet  know where you are going with this one.  The little Ron-Paul homunculus on my left shoulder keeps yapping "Hey, they're grownups! If they didn't want the money they shouldn't have taken it. A deal's a deal, let it stand! "  Boy, I'm tempted by that one.  But the bleeding-heart homunculus on my other shoulder keeps answering "Yeh, and pigs will fly.  These people didn't understand what they are doing, and would not have understood it if you'd spelled it out in flashing neon lights.   It takes a special kind of mind to spot a gimmick like that, and decent people don't do it.   Taking contracts from these poor souls was like buying Manhattan island for $24 worth of beads."  

Oh meo myo, a dilemma.  But the voice on my third shoulder (?) adds: "Right, not a single Wall Street pirate has spent so much as one day behind bars. And we are going after a guy who kept his promise.  The only reason for a prosecution here is that the prosecutor can't figure it out either,  and therefore figures that somebody ought to go to jail."  

I am not cool with that.

Afterthought:  That part about the beads--did that ever really happen?

Saturday, March 01, 2008

Tim Harford on Annuities

Tim Harford asks--but does not answer--one of my favorite questions: why are we so scared of annuities (link)? And the corollary question: why is that the market for annuities in this country just stinks? Tim does mention that "insurers must fear that only vegan teetotalers will buy them"--aka, the problem of adverse selection. But virtually every insurance product has some kind of adverse selection problem; it's not obviously worse with annuities than with other products. It's also true that the prices for annuities are high (or, translated, the returns are low), but they aren't entirely irrational, and they probably would come down if the market were better developed. Granted, the Brits had some bad experience with annuities a few years back, but that can't be the reason: most Americans don't know anything about the British experience--and god knows we have had more than our share of problems with the much-beloved corporate defined-benefit pension scheme (think LTV, think airline pilots--hey, go back 50 years and think Studebaker).

I don't have an answer, but I am fascinated by one particular pivot point in the annuity puzzle. Say you're 65 and you have been lucky enough to save a million dollars. You're afraid of "outliving your money." You could buy an annuity that would guarantee you payments for life, no matter how long you might live. Granted it is high price, and granted there is the risk that the insurance company itself will go broke. But I don't think that is what really bugs people. What bugs them is that they might pay out a million today and die tomorrow. "I want," they always say, "to leave something for my kids."

Well of course you do, wonderbuns, but you also want not to be dependent on your kids when you're 85, and you want your kids not to have to take care of you. Isn't that something?

I'm still not very far down the road of figuring out the answer, but I do have a partial suggetion for what to do with that million at age 65: buy an annuity that kicks in at age 85--i.e., depend on your own assets for the first 20 years, but insure the long tail. I don't know what it will cost you, but it won't cost you as much as a full annuity starting tomorrow. That way, if you get lucky and die at 71 (that's a joke, son), your kids will have something. They stand to lose altogether only when they've really lost out already.

Think of it as just another kind of high-deductible insurance, and if you have read this far, you probably know what that is already: you buy collision insurance on your new car, but you agree to pay the first $1,000, or $2,500, or even $10,000 yourself. Or think "catastrophe insurance" in health care: you agree to pay your own daily medical expenses, but you buy coverage against the major loss. Once you start thinking of an annuity as insurance--and treating it that way--then all your problems are over. Glad you asked?