Populi Schmopuli

Two more stories to remind you of how, um, surprising, can be the opinions of the voters on high-visibility public issues.

One, Don Taylor showcases results in a survey of voter attitudes to various budget/tax packages.  Way I read it, the Tea Party comes up with the smallest budget cuts and the smallest overall deficit reduction.  Independents are tops in both with Dems a close second and Republicans generally, third.  Democrats head the league tables for "raise taxes," but only slightly ahead of Independents.  Taylor discusses it from the perspective of health policy which is only natural because that is his gig.  I would say it is one more piece of evidence as to how difficult it is to get a decent conversation going on these issues.

Two, take a look at the current Economist and its survey of what California voters know about their budget.  And before you get smug, be warned that this is one poll where the "best informed" voters do worst.   The data on California's famous/notorious "Proposition 13" from 1978 are particularly telling.  Older, better educated voters who might even be expected to remember Prop 13--they got pipped by younger less educated, and even by "registered elsewhere" or "non-citizens"--could it be the old settlers, and not the immigrants, who need to take a citizenship test?  

Thanks, Arnie, Where Have you Been?

California's lame duck governor threw all his dwindling onto the green felt yesterday with a much-touted speech outlining a lot of much-touted budget cuts. Jennifer Steinhauer in the Times offers context:

As a practical matter, the Governor, a Republican, tends to propose large cut to services that the Democratic-controlled Legislature has no intention of brooking. A compromise--one that still reduces services greatly--is no doubt in the offing, along with a hefty dose of accounting tricks and the infusion of some federal money...

Well, I suppose that passes the giggle test, but with important qualification. One, yesterday's outline probably does count ss more assertive and challenging than any budget initiative the governor has taken before. And two, it is even more doomed to failure. I'll repeat what I (think I) have said before: Arnie piddled away a golden opportunity at the beginning of his term by (apparent) laziness and lack of focus. If he had really tried to do something dramatic then--when his numbers were still stratospheric, and when he still had a whole term or two ahead of him--he just might have proved a history-maker. He can be ambitious now--now!--because he knows that nobody has to pay much attention to him.

Scariest Muted-Blue Chart You are Likely to See All Day

An oddly muted presentation for a pretty inflammatory topic: projected state budget deficits:


It's from a Congressional Budget Office Report called "Policies for Increasing Economic Growth andEmployment in 2010 and 2011" (link). It's popping up all over bloggyland, but one source link is here. Can you read the number in the California box? It says (gulp) 49 percent.

California Budget Datapoint

This one has probably been around for s while, but it's a new one on me:

To be sure, none of the GOP lawmakers who demanded that the state close its $42-billion shortfall without raising taxes detailed the doomsday cuts that approach would entail, nor did the activists who lobbied against the tax increases. If the state had laid off its entire workforce of 238,000 -- every prison guard, firefighter and clerk -- it still would have fallen billions shy of a balanced budget.

I suppose it's disingenuous in the respect that the state budget is more than salaries. And a sensible defender of spending knows how to threaten the most visible, crippling, generally horrendous budget cuts imaginable (the librarian will threaten to close during the busiest hours, or to cancel all email accounts).

But the flipside is equally true: I have never yet met a budget-cutter active in electoral politics who will offer a detailed and candid account of just how much he will cut, and where (possible exception: Tom McClintock).