Been Wondering About This...

Miochael Bronner is the first guy I've noticed who responds to something I've been wondering about re Georgia and Russia (link). He forecasts

an increase in the longstanding, rampant criminality in the conflict zones that is likely to further destabilize the entire Caucasus region and at worst provide terrorist groups with the nuclear material they have long craved.

While the Russian “peacekeepers” who entrenched themselves in the conflict zones in the 1990s (and who will now likely resume their posts anew) have proved ineffectual and uninterested in maintaining stability, they’ve been highly successful in protecting an array of sophisticated criminal networks stretching from Russia through Georgian territory. South Ossetia, in particular, is a nest of organized crime. It is a marketplace for a variety of contraband, from fuel to cigarettes, wheat flour, hard drugs, weapons, people and, recently, counterfeit United States $100 bills “minted” at a press inside the conflict zone.

Sounds right to me. This has always been a refractory little corner of the world (but aren't they all?). The interesting thing is that the Moscow brass doesn't seem to care, or to notice that they may be in the same world.

Moral Clarity, Please

It's a bit unnerving to see the likes of Matt Yglesias (link, link) and TPM (link) go all squiggly giggly about Russian bullying in Georgia. Yes, the Georgians have bullied their little neighbors too (very likely, although the facts are not in, with our encouragement, and at least with our fatal lack of prudence and foresight). A moment's reflection will show that there are a zillion things the Russians could have done to help their little friends the Ossetians and the Abkhazian, had that been their purpose. But helping little friends is not high on the Russian agenda: showing the Georgians who is boss surely is on the agenda, not to mention making it clear to us who controls Caucasian oil flows. For starters, would it have been such a big deal to say, "look, there's a problem here, and our peacemakers are not the ones to solve it. Help us to put together an international force to secure community integrity of these minority peoples." Charging in with tanks and aircraft certainly makes a point, and I suspect it is almost exactly the point that the Russians wanted to make.

It is good fun, however, to see the uber-hawk Charles Krauthammer reduced to sputtering that we'd better revoke the Russian's library card.

For a fun exercise in just how complicated these things can be--or for a nice abstract wall-hanging, to occupy that bit of dead space in the dining room--check out this ethnic map of the neighborhood. Adygeys, Lezgins and Balkars remain to be heard from.

Go-to Guy for Georgia

For my money, the go-to-guy on Georgia right now is Mark Kleiman at Reality-Based Community. Start here and work back or (if you are reading this tomorrow) work forward. Everybody else seems to be struggling to get on the right foot here; Kleiman seems to have had it figured out for the start.

Afterthought: Well, I did also enjoy Richard Holbrooke with Margaret Warner on the News Hour with Jim Lehrer--not least his willingness to call Dimitri Simes a liar to his face (link). Here's Holbrook:

The Russians spent two years provoking Russia -- provoking Georgia. Maybe they sucker-punched Georgia; we're not sure. But the timing, the action, the unbelievable brutality of it, reminiscent of Prague '68, Budapest '56, is heartbreaking.

And I want to stress, closing this. I'm not a warmonger, and I don'twant a new Cold War any more than Dimitri does. We've worked togetherin the past. We both share a vision of Russia as an important part of the world, seeking solutions to climate change, energy, and stability.

But this is a chilling effect. The Russians wish to re-establish a historic area of hegemony that includes Ukraine. And it is no accident that the other former Soviet republics are watching this andextraordinarily upset, as Putin progresses with an attempt to re-create a kind of a hegemonic space.