Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Tyler on Politicians on Politics
Friday, February 06, 2009
Satantango
But it is equally likely that the movie is not quite possible to ignore: that it is original, challenging in some way arresting—even (dare one say it) worthy of our attention.
You clever devil, you are way ahead of me here: I'm talking about Satantango. Béla Tarr's glepic* of despair on and off a Hungarian (collective?) farm. Il Teatro Buce has now completed 1/15 of a Sontag-sized viewing of Satantango. The conclusion: it is distasteful, repellent or at least unpleasant and generally hard to watch. But it is not quite possible to ignore: original, challenging and (dare one say it--oh, forget it). I won't go so far as to say I "enjoyed" it; perhaps it belongs in the same class as the Battle of Guadalcanal: good do have been there, even though the experience of actually being there is one you wouldn't wish on an unsuspecting friend.
Wiki declares that there is a complex and subtle fabric to all this, drawn from the underlying novel, but I'd take that with a grain of salt. What is arresting here is not the subtle undercurrents but the raw simplicity. They say there are two plots: a boy leaves home and a stranger comes to town. You can bet your poop-covered farm boots that nobody leaves home in this one (forgetting the throngs who must have left town before the cameras started running). There is a "stranger" of sorts, although everyone in town seems to know him. He can't get his identity papers straight, it isn't clear why. So the man behind the desk tells him he'll have to spy on the villagers, it isn't clear what for. And he undertakes to flimflam them out of all there money, it isn't--well, okay, I suppose it is clear that he just wants the money.
With all earnestness, I have to concede that the stark despair of it all was a sight to behold--a bit like Beckett, if not nearly so funny. And I think you have to take on the terms of its own sheer pointlessness. I wouldn't go so far as to say (some have) that it is a searing indictment of capitalism. I don't really think it is a searing indictment of communism either--indeed, not a searing indictment at all: searing indictments take too much energy, and focus, and vision.
The next thing you notice, aside from the bare structure of the piece, is the rhythm, and this is where seven hours (sadly) probably matters. Tarr can set up a shot like nobody else I know: he sets his camera at a distance; he waits, watches, patiently, while something (or maybe nothing) happens. It certainly isn't the only way to look at something, and there's no reason to think it is the best way, but it certainly is a way and I can't think of anyone else who does it so well. I'd grant what I take to be his point. Maybe you just have to see it all stretched out like this to get his particular feel for this corner of life.
We did, I confess, stretch it over three evenings. And more than once I thought: thank heavens I'm not hunched down in the theatre. So, only 14 more to go.
Afterthought: Tyler Cowen is another who speaks highly of Satantango. I'll bet he was multitasking.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Tyler on Unemployment
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Pleonasms?
I'd say the same in re many (not all) of his other supposed "pleonasms." "Women-folk" are not just "women;" they are women who are part of the tribe, for whom we menfolk (sic) are responsible. So, "preacher-man" is not just a preacher; he is a preacher whose humanity is being recognized.
"You-all" is, of course, not in any sense a pleonasm; it is a welcome attempt to restore the distinction between singular and plural in the second-person pronoun. And while we-all are on the topic, need a distinction (makeable, I am told, in some other languages) between "we" (including you) and "we" (not including you).
I admit I still have no idea what to do with "onliest."
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Appreciation: Martin Wolf and John Maynard Keynes
At the end of the day, I don't suppose Keynes' General Theory is quite as impossible as Hegel's Phenomenology (and, in the end, I suspect not as important). But it's fit to appear in the same company, and perhaps in part for the same reasons. Here are two: one, both Keynes and Hegel are taking part in conversations that are pretty well lost to us know--hard to guess (or to believe) that so much of that seeming jargon in Hegel was part of the parlance of his time, at least in some circles. So also with Keynes, and with Keynes there is a more insidious problem. That is: he seems to be talking the language of an economics that we recognize, but he's not, really. A lot has happened since 1937 and so much of what we think we ought to understand turns out to be obscured by subtle shifts of meaning. So we are almost as lost as we are in the swamp of German idealism.
The other is that Keynes and Hegel have a maddening habit of arguing with learned predecessors while (a) not telling you who those predecessors are; nor (b) exactly what the argument is about; nor (c) indeed, that there is an argument at all. Here's one huge reason why, with either of them, you really can't expect to do it on your own. For guidance with Hegel, there are a number of good choices (here's a favorite). For Keynes there are, surprisingly, fewer. There is some useful stuff in the Robert Skidelsky biography, particularly volume two. There stuff from his acolytes in the literature of economics itself but nothing that I know of by way of patient chapter-by-chaptere exposition. Which would be why the efforts of Tyler and his commentators are so much to be appreciated.
The Wolf book is a more puzzling item. No one claims that Martin Wolf is John Maynard Keynes, but Wolf is certainly a splendid journalist-on-economics: on big-picture macro, maybe his only current competitor is Greg Ip. Fixing Global Finance exhibits his technical skill and also his knack for explaining, but in an odd way: page by page, Wolf makes his points clearly, without jargon and with precision. But it's still a take-no-prisoners book. Wolf may do a good job of explaining the dimensions of global trade imbalances, and of assessing their possible implications. But he isn't going to lift a finger to remind you why it matters, or exactly how they happen. For a serioius economist (not me) I suspect this is pretty easy going. For a patient and attentive observer (I think that would be me), it all takes, well, patience.
Also: when all is said and done it is actually pretty anodyne. Yes, the evidence is equivocal, but yes, there are trade imbalances and no, nobody quite understands why, an[d yes, it's probably best to do something about them, and by the way, do something drastic with the International Monetary Fund. That is useful, but it's hardly enough to make you toss your hat in the air.
And there is a final problem, certianly not of Wolf's own making--the fact that he has been swamped, drowned, rendered almost voiceless by events. This isn't an old book at all--Wolf was writing after Northern Rock--but so much has swept over is since that his comp copies might as well have been swept off by the flood
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Stan is Just as Right as Tyler
[B]uying a home isn't the American dream; making a great deal of money from selling a home is what most people really want. The homeowner anger is not because they will be living on the street; it's because they won't earn the same profits they saw others make.Aside from the NY Times, I've been giving some time today to Benjamin Friedman's Moral Consequences of Economic Growth (2005), where the takeaway point can be expressed, roughly, as:growing economies become more constructive and more tolerant; stagnating economies, more cautious and guarded; shrinking economies, downright ugly. Just sayin', that's all.Couple with this what has become an almost undeniable entitlement mentality, that is, the very clear sentiment that a homeowner somehow is entitled to having their home appreciate by ridiculous amounts and that someone else is to blame when that doesn't happen, and it's not hard to see why the policy choices have all turned to bailouts. No one is suggesting, for example, that the government build more rental housing or provide Katrina-like trailers for homeowners who lose their homes. Instead, it's all about finding ways for them to stay in their home that they can't afford.
Fn.: Friedman is also in today's NYT--link.
Monday, April 14, 2008
Still Trying to Get the Bugs Out
Right enough. But wait till we see the male morning-after pill.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
What Homer Wanted
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Tyler Cowen is Shocked, Shocked
I see that Tyler Cowen is back to touting his own form of “blame the victim” re the housing meltdown (link):
IT’S NOT JUST THE LENDERS There has been plenty of talk about “predatory lending,” but “predatory borrowing” may have been the bigger problem. As much as 70 percent of recent early payment defaults had fraudulent misrepresentations on their original loan applications, according to one recent study. The research was done by BasePoint Analytics, which helps banks and lenders identify fraudulent transactions; the study looked at more than three million loans from 1997 to 2006, with a majority from 2005 to 2006. Applications with misrepresentations were also five times as likely to go into default.
Technically speaking, the answer is: no, they cannot complain. To make a case for fraud, you have to prove not just “misrepresentation,” but “reliance.” Granted that a lot of the paper in the loan apps file would look bad in the Bulwer-Lytton bad fiction finals. But in spite—no precisely because—of that fact, the lenders cannot seriously claim that they were ever misled. If you hoik up some derelict off the street and tell him that you will fork over $1 million if only he will sign a piece of paper avowing that he knocks back $300 thou a year, why of course he’ll sign. There used to be a doctrine—maybe there still is—that a taker of negotiable warehouse receipt cannot claim to be “in good faith” if he takes from “a tramp or a professor.”
There also used to be as rule that “anyone who meets the definition of ‘good faith’…cannot be a ‘bank.’” But that takes us down a different path.
Footnote on “things we learned” in economics: I pluck my example out of
Update: Big Picture is a lot less kind than I am. DeLong has reservations. Paul Beard predicts: "Next up, how patients are to blame for malpractice. . ."
Mark Perry discovers that there are markets in everything.
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Mortgage Default and the Fraud Fandango
Tyler Cowen has an interesting post up about the scope of mortgage fraud, although I am not sure it says what it may think it says (link):
BasePoint Analytics LLC, a recognized fraud analytics and consulting firm, analyzed over 3 million loans originated between 1997 and 2006 (the majority being 2005-2006 vintage), including 16,000 examples of non-performing loans that had evidence of fraudulent misrepresentation in the original applications. Their research found that as much as 70 of early payment default loans contained fraud misrepresentations on the application.
That is from a Fitch Ratings report (summary here, with an eventual link to buy it), the rest makes for very gory reading as well. ...
Fine as far as it goes, but old time bankruptcy lawyers will remember the “fraud fandango” as it played itself out back before some important law changes around 1970. The consumer debtor would look at the application form where it says “list all your debts;” there were only three blank spaces. “But I have more than three creditors”—“oh, not to worry, we only use that for the credit check.” So the customer would list only three and then when she defaulted, the creditor would profess to be shocked, shocked to learn that there were really 17.
Sometimes, you could persuade the judge to hear these grisly details. So, no fraud because no intent to defraud Even better, sometimes you could show him that the lender would have made the loan even if the debtor had told the whole truth. So, no fraud because no reliance.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find that some version of this caper played itself out in the late mortgage uproar. In a good many of these cases it was the brokers, I suspect, who were the initiators of the fraud, rather than the victims. The interesting question is: how far up the line does this go? Wasn’t anybody auditing the brokers? Auditing the auditors? Or was it all just one big clambake where everybody knew there wasn’t enough to go around, but everybody hoped they would get theirs off the table before the bell rang.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Tyler Cowen on Blackwater: It's More than "Perception"
Tyler Cowen has tackled (or should I simply say “molested”) a favorite topic of mine—the question of when, exactly, “the market” yields a better solution than “the government.”
In a blog entry today, he characterizes his own argument as saying that “perception and accountability are important enough in contemporary
Fifty years ago, we were all accustomed to the proposition that any evil was a problem of “capitalism,” and that come the revolution, we would all have egg in our beer. Most of us now understand the rhetorical deficiency of comparing an actual capitalism to a hypothetical socialism. We don’t seem to be so alert yet to the insight that it works the other way round: nothing to be gained by comparing an actual public entity with a hypothetical market.
Here and elsewhere,
Well, pin a rose on him for that. I’ll even give him an A for effort (okay, maybe a B plus). But there’s a lot more to be done and (lacking the talent and/or energy to do it myself), I look forward to his forthcoming, more ambitious and insightful forays.
Afterthought: Somewhere, perhaps tucked away in a cubical-office at Cal State Pimento, an untenured political science professor is crying—“hey, I know the answer to that question! Call on me! Call on me!" He just might be right.
Friday, September 07, 2007
Tyler Whines About Whiners
Boy, am I ever of two minds about this one. Tyler Cowen says “stop whining.” He’s talking about all those early Iphone adopters, ticked off at the Ifolks for cutting prices (link). “Get this,” snarls
“I just felt so used as a consumer,” he said. “They hyped up the iPhone for six months and built up our expectations, and then they grabbed our extra $200 and ran.”
Here is another guy:
“I feel totally screwed,” wrote one iPhone owner on the Unofficial Apple Weblog site. “My love affair with Apple is officially over.”
OK, people, it's no more Mr. Nice Guy. I'm fed up! No more moderation, no more namby-pamby conciliations to those I disagree with, at least not today. I am plain, hopping mad. … It is you people, you who resent Coase (1972), you people who induce wage and price stickiness and widen the Okun gap. You people, who don't know what it means to sit back and enjoy your consumer surplus. You beasts!
Well—yes, of course, he’s absolutely right, six ways to the Jack. They are whiners—silly, childish, blind to their own interests and the common good. But have we ever had a more remarkable example of an economist complaining (though perhaps with his tongue just edging close to his cheek) that the rest of us don’t behave like economists? Of course he’s right, but isn’t it even a teensy bit interesting that the rest of the world just doesn’t seem to get it—231 years after Adam Smith, 150-odd years after Ricardo, etc., that people still keep persist in acting like, well like people? Which is to say either (a) just not acting like economists tell them they act; or (b) leading economists to ever-more lurid, convoluted ad hoc explanations to tell them they really were acting like economists all along?
A gold-plated cigar to the first person who points to a blog post showing that the whiners really have been acting “economically” all along. Meanwhile, we can entertain ourselves with a whole spate of books (including this one, this one, this one, this one, this one) devoted to proving that the sun really does rise (as it did in John Wayne’s Viet Nam movie) in the west.
But, as I say,
Monday, July 23, 2007
For Your Dining Pleasure
From Yglesias:
Hugo Lindgren glosses Tyler Cowen's view on what makes for good cuisine: "The magic ingredient, he elaborates, is extreme income inequality, which ensures a large reservoir of cheap labor to grow and prepare the food, as well as a sufficient number of rich people who, being rich, must eat well."
I'd go a step further: I suspect a lot of NY restaurants could jack up prices an extra 15 percent if they had a supply of starving children pressing their noses against the window.
Sunday, July 15, 2007
Education as Doorbreaker
Tyler Cowen goes ballistic over Jonathan Kozol. Kozol says (in the August Harper's):
[W]e may soon wake up to find that they have been replaced by wholly owned subsidiaries of McDonald's, Burger King, and Wal-Mart.
Note that while there are some good (though in my view not decisive) arguments against vouchers, Kozol instead focuses on reminding us that corporations are greedy profit-maximizers. Nor does he mention that in
I don’t think I’m up to the task of translating this response into English (is
That is: why would any self-regarding entrepreneur want to run a school, anyway? The process of education itself has never looked like a source of easy profits—a lot of investment for deferred on dodgy returns. But the related business—textbooks and computers, maybe, but also mass market fashion and, yes, hamburgers. Education as a doorbreaker: a loss leader to bring the customer to the real goodies. Now, that is a marketing opportunity.
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Overrated/Underrated
I figure Tyler Cowen’s search for the most overrated novel will have 200 comments before tonight, so I won’t presume to add anything direct, but rather to move the ball downfield a bit with a slightly different response. That is: reading the early returns, I would say that there are different ways of being overrated; not all overrated books are overrated in the same way.
Example: a lot of readers weigh in with their grievances about compulsory school reading, like Catcher in the Rye and To Kill a Mockingbird. My guess is that neither of these is a “great” novel—but they are perfectly straightforward and accessible and hey, nobody is going to like what is assigned to them in high school anyway (or even read it, as I said of myself a few days ago).
I doubt that John Barth is much assigned in high school and that if he is “rated” at all, it is by a pretty small treehouse assembly—so also William Gaddis and others not yet on the Tyler list: John Hawkes, Paul Bowles, Gilbert Sorrentino and there ilk. What the share is not necessarily awfulness—there is no accounting for tastes, and readers are perfectly welcome to like them if they want— but they do lend themselves to a good deal of posturing and scoldidng. Pynchon is a special case here: people do use him to beat up on their alleged inferiors, but he does seem to have a bona fide following of serious enthusiasts.
Ayn Rand, by contrast shouldn’t be judged as a novelist at all, but rather as a social phenom: the better comparison would be the Left Behind novels, whose readers for a band (no, a multitude) of passionate devotees, convinced of and committed to a highly particular world-view. As a developmental stage, its perfectly innocuous; most Ayn Rand readers outgrow it, and it’s a shame only that the same can’t be said for the Left Behind fans (I’ll put in a good word, though, for the “other” Ayn Rand novel—We the Living, about Russia during the revolution, which would be interesting and worthwhile even if its author were named Aylyce Rundt).
The debate over “the masters” takes place on a different plane. Re Henry James, my own taste tells me (pace
PS to Tyler: When you say "Sartre," maybe you are thinking of everything but the novels; the novels are, I think, actually pretty good.
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Your Mother Loved You But She Died: A Note on Profit
Tyler Cowen offers up an odd response to Nassim Taleb in Tyler's review of The Black Swan, Taleb’s new book about prediction and unlikely events (link). Here’s
Taleb does insist on the originality of his work—regarding it as a black swan, of course—and refers to opposing views as the "GIF: Great Intellectual Fraud." Nonetheless, the idea of a Power Law as a deeply skewed and asymmetric distribution is well-known, and the statistical notion of "ergodicity" (roughly, the idea that the initial state of a system does not predict its end state very well) has been around for a long time. In 1921, economist Frank Knight drew a distinction between unquantifiable and radical uncertainty and the risk of flipping a coin or playing a roulette wheel. If these ideas have not always been part of the mainstream, it is because they can quickly prove intractable, not because they have been suppressed by an arrogant scientific community.
I won’t defend “GIF”—and FWIW, I am not an economist and Tyler is. But I do think he is eliding over an important point here. I am the proud owner of a cherished first edition of Frank Knight’s Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit (1921), surely one of the classics of modern economics. Knight’s point, only slightly restated, is that an “expected profit” is a contradiction in terms—it may be a “factor return,” but in a competitive market, it will be no higher than the opportunity cost of capital, and the net present value of a project will be zero. So, consider the case I buy a share of BigCo, with a certain return at t=1 of $100. I pay $80 at t=0: that is a 25 percent return ((100/80)-1=0.25=25 percent). But suppose the market rate of return for comparable investments is 10 percent. Then I can’t really expect to get it for $80; I can expect the price to be bid up to $90.91, where the implied rate of return is the market rate ((100/90.91)-1=0.1=10 percent).
By Knight’s analysis, there is a “profit” in this deal--$10.91, being spread between the $90.91 “implied return,” or “opportunity cost return,” and the $80 you pay. But blink your eyes and it won’t be there any longer. That's the definition of a competitive market. That’s why economists say that if there is a five dollar bill on the street in your neighborhood, it isn’t there any longer. The guy who gets the profit is the guy who, by superior acumen or dumb luck, grabs the opportunity before anybody else knows what it is worth.
Economists and others like to use models from, e.g., casino gambling, to suss out the analysis of risk. The point here is that these casino gambling returns are, over the long run, highly predictable. Indeed, I have had students argue that casino gambling isn’t even risk—that they can set aside money for it as part of their entertainment budget, just as they might put aside money for food, or rent, or tuition. My only response is—what are students doing with that kind of money anyway?
The trouble with mainstream theory is not that it denies this kind of profit, but that it doesn’t know how to model it. And if something doesn’t get modeled, it might as well be denied. This is, by the way, one point on which the “Austrians” score points against (and differ from) the mainstream—one thing that they are driving at when they rattle on about the importance of “entrepreneurship” in economic behavior (see, e.g., link). The corollary is that the Austrians disdain this kind of modeling, and without a model, you don’t get no respect.
This is, by the way, just one of many ways in which Frank Knight’s startling originality and prescience gets smoothed over in mainstream theory. Economists are human: when they squat around the campfire to drink the blood of the vanquished, they like to retell their story in linear narrative, with Knight as a precursor. So he is, but it is a shame to sacrifice his originality to the demons of linearity.
My very best wishes to
Friday, April 27, 2007
Why Isn't Opera As Good As It Used to Be?
I'd offer another reason, at least for my own taste: nostalgia. I like to listen to mouldy opera disks for the same reason I read Alan Furst novels, or a lot of people watch Edwardian soapers on Mawsterpiece Theatre: a yearning for a past we never experienced (segue to Snoopy on "when this cruel war is over").
Ms. Buce suggests another possibility: it is not the moderns but the ancients that are less well trained. Nobody ever listened to Callas for technique. Less polished voices are more likely to jump off the shelf at you. I think of Bruno Walter doing Beethoven's Fifth with the Philadelphia Symphony: they sound like they are about to fall off a cliff, as if they are all saying "my God, we're playing Beethoven!" Gives the performance an urgency that you just wouldn't get in a more disciplined age (I think I got this last point from Jim Svejda (link))
Friday, February 02, 2007
Tyler Cowen's Non-Book on Colombia
I wonder if Tyler Cowen is thinking of writing a book about
The stuff doesn’t lend itself to easy summary, but let me try: by any measure,
What we have here more generally is an attempt to respond to an important question that libertarians rarely ask—namely, if you don’t like the government, then what, precisely, is the alternative? Hobbes thought it was the state of nature: solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short. Modern libertarians imagine sometimes seem to imagine life just like now, only without the National Endowment for the Arts.
No one has ever accused