Friday, July 31, 2009

Chekhov on Culture

Cultured people will

respect the human personality, and are therefore always forbearing, gentle, courteous, and compliant. They will overlook noise, and coild, and overdone meat, and the presence of strangers in the house....They are sincere and fear untruth like the very devil....They do not make fools of themselves in order to arouse sympathy....They are not vain....They develop an esthetic sense.
From a letter by Anton Chekhov to his brother, as quoted in the foreword (by Robert Brustein) to the Signet Classics Edition of Anton Chekhov: The Major Plays vii (1964).

Overdone meat?

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Ashland Theater Note: Equivocation

Bill Cain's play Equivocation, which premiered at the Ashland Shakespeare Festival this spring, seems almost tailor-made for the Ashland audience. It's about Shakespeare. It's got a lot of Shakespearean in-jokes, together with plenty of the one thing Ashland does best--farce. And it's all played out on a platter of Arthur-Miler-like moral earnestness that is bound to sooth and comfort the dedicated Ashland audience.

Cain certainly hit his mark, if the audience here last night is any gauge: they were hooting and hollering. And I grant him this --there was a lot to enjoy. Cain is polished at the kind of rim-shot dialog exchange that you can only learn from long practice in a real theatre. The farce was great--the climax of the show as a ten-minute sendup on Macbeth, which was certainly the funniest Macbeth I've ever seen and which, considering how many ponderous, marmoreal and overwrought Macbeths there are in the world, might just be the best Macbeth I've ever seen.

Cain's problem, I suspect, is that there isn't any other audience in the world that is going to like this item anywhere near as well, if at all. It's just too inside. And beyond the details, the play is rather a mess. Well--the core plot idea is good enough: King James I asks (orders) Shakespeare to write a play about the Gunpowder Plot. Shakespeare puzzles over how to save his skin while telling the truth. That's a good enough setup for a lot of dialog exchanges about "speaking truth to power" but in the end, he just throws it all away and does Macbeth instead.

Say wha--? For the ordinary (non-true-believer) theatre-goer, I suspect that this is just too much to handle. Meanwhile for contrast--I can't help but wonder if Cain wasn't inspired by Tom Stoppard's great score with Shakespeare in Love a few years back, which he turned into such a successful movie (I've seen it several times, and would gladly watch it again). The thing is, Stoppard achieved the trick of throwing a bone to the faithful--realistic Shakespearean atmosphere--while putting together a show that was funny and sexy that you could enjoy without a particle of insider knowledge. Most of what Cain does here would be lost, I suspect, on any but the truest of true believers.

A word about the politics in the play. Let's stipulate that torture is a bad thing. But to say as much to the Ashland audience is not precisely an act of moral courage: indeed, I suspect if you scored Dick Cheney on the hubba hubba metre with this crowd, with a scale of 100 he might hit a one. Torture is bad, true enough, but to go on and on about it with this crowd is about as tough as dynamiting whales in a barrel. Early on in the play (but I don't have a script) someone says something about the purpose of the theatre is to give you a feeling that you have improved without really changing anything. Exactly right.

So taken overall Equivocations strikes me as a pretty specialized taste. A solace for Cain is that Ashland has plenty of those, and so he is likely to be able to bask in a successful run for the full season.

Crime of the Century

You in a heap o' trouble, boy:

In April an Egyptian blogger, Ahmed Mohsen, was detained on the Orwellian charge
of “exploiting the democratic climate to overthrow the government”.

Link

Liveblogging Napoleon's Russian Invasion:
A Soldier Is Left to Die

July of 1812 for Napoleon meant two great missed opportunities: at Vilna and and Vitebsk, from both of which the Russians slipped away without a fight. Not everyone was so lucky. Captain Franz Roeder, an officer with the First Battalion of Hessian Lifeguards, records a chilling encounter on he the march:

[W]e came upon one of he harrowing sights of the war. About half way we found a soldier of the Young Guard lying by the road in a little copse. For three days he had been left there ill or exhausted without food, and now he was like to die from hunger or thirst. Two regiments of the Young Guard had already passed before us, but the most that a sympathiser had been able to do had been to give him a drop from his water flask, for the Colonel, preferring his chaise and horses to the life of a man, had forbidden them to take him up and carry him with them. If this had been done and they could have given him some soup at the bivouac he might have been saved. We would willingly have helped him, but we only had bread, which he could no longer swallow. If only I had known at the time I might have given him a moment's assistance with some goat's milk, which I had by me in a schnapps flask, but I did not hear what had occurred until too late. If they had had a stretcher our soldiers might perhaps have carried him, but they shuddered to think that no such provision had been made and that he might not otherwise be saved. In his fate they saw their own. And does it never occur to these ego-drunk officers that their manifest indifference to this scene, of which more will follow, has a most demoralizing effect upon their soldiers, especially those who have not yet become hardened to such sights by many campaigns? They will be disposed to desert whenever possible, and if they cannot manage to escape, their already failing physical stamina will collapse form having no moral counterbalance to sustain it.
--Quoted in Helen Roeder, The Ordeal of Captain Roeder 102 (London 1960)

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

The Thing About Health Care

My friend Rusty and I were idling in front of a TV set a while ago, watching Howard Dean rattle on about health care, when it occurred to us both more or less at once: the thing about health care is that voters really don't see anything in it for them That is to say, nobody has sold the voters on the proposition that the system needs to be changed. We may not like what we
ve got but we muddle along one way or another and we doubt very much that anything the government can do will make it better. Tyler Cowen had a good run the other day with the guy who said "keep your government hands off my Medicare," but there is more truth in the remark than the mockers want to admit. Yes, I am aware that Medicare is provided by the government, and I suspect maybe that the speaker was too. What he meant, in his perhaps inartfully chosen phrase was: Medicare ain't broke, so don't fix it.

You will say that it is broke and you are, in some sense, right. But you havn't sold Tyler's speaker yet. Critics have long pointed out that a lot of the "uninsured" are such out of choice. Granted, there are many ojust can't afford good health care. But many of these don't vote, and as we all know, if you make your proposal a wealth transfer program, you lose.

It may be that a really enterprising and savvy salesman could close the deal. Barack ain't it, but no other politician (= Democrat) is it either. If voters really wanted health care reform, we would have had it 20 years ago.

Ashland Theater Note: All's Well That Ends Well

I've groused before that the good folks at the Ashland Shakespeare Festival operate at less than their best when doing Shakespeare himself. Maybe I should revise that: over the years, they have proven somewhat shaky at the big ones: mediocre at Hamlet, King Lear, Antony and Cleopatra, that sort of thing (though here is a pretty good Othello and here a passable Tempest). But a couple of years back, we saw a really impressive King John. And last night, we took in a convincing rendition of (are you ready for this?) All's Well That Ends Well.

All's Well is a tough nut for Shakespeare fans. It's not precisely a bad play--there is a lot of interesting stuff in it--but at the best of times it is a deeply unpleasant play, where it is near impossible to leave the viewer with anything a really wants to hang onto. The Ashland venture owes a lot of its success to Danforth Comins in the lead as Bertram. The boy seems to have a knack for not especially likeable people: he turned in an impressive Coriolanus last summer, and in other outings he has done Cassio (in Othello), Orlando (in As You Like It) and Benvolio (in Romeo and Juliet). His Bertram is young, full of high spirits, not overbright, but blessed with enough natural charm that you forget how he is really a rotter.

For Helena, his long-suffering adorer (stalker?), they took something of risk: they gave it to Kjerstine Rose Anderson, who played it as a more or less comic bumpkin. Okay, bumpkin is too strong. But this Helena, for all her human appeal, is unpolished: she slumps, she shuffles, she loses words (i.e., on purpose): if she went to finishing school, she surely never finished. It's basically the same schtick she tried as (the other) Helena in Midsummer Night's Dream. I don't think it worked in Dream. For this Helena, seasoned Shakespeareans may regard the bumpkin approach as old stuff but it was new to me (I tend to think of Helena as more in the line of dignified and long-suffering). Maybe it works; it's certainly something to think about, which is perhaps recommendation enough.

Outside the leads, the most noteworthy device may be that they have dressed the play up with a "Clown," who presides, inter alia, over an introduction and an epilogue. My first thought was -- uh oh, they're not trusting the script again, they've gone to panic mode and chosen to camp it up. But not really. What they've done is to stitch together a bunch of stage business onto a single thread of characterization, and in the end, yes, it probably does help to give unity and consistency to the whole. Necessrily a lot of the credit here goes to the actor, Armando Durán, who seems to be able to make his comedy delicate and unintrusive.

They've made somewhat the samer use of G. Valmont Thomas as Lafew, and also in a whole bunch of ensemble parts. Over the years, Thomas has honed a comic persona as the stuffy and clueless (yet somehow likeable) hanger-on who can add a tactful note of good nature to an otherwise tense piece of business. Doesn't work for everything, works nicely here.

When I say "they," I suppose I mean Amanda Dehnert, the director. Apparently she is new to Ashalnd. From a scan of her credits, I infer that she doesn't do a lot of Shakespeare. Maybe that is all for the best; maybe it keeps her from being inhibited in tackling this, one of the most challenging items in the Canon.

[That makes two: who would have guessed it? This is actually the second really good All's Well I've had the privilege of seeing in the past few years. The other was this eye-opening production back in 2006 in New York.

Cute Trick: There's a cute little narrative trick in the film that they run at the end that will be intelligible to anyone who is quick-witted and observant, and who remembers Newhart or St. Elsewhere. Mrs. Buce caught it, although I don't think she watched either.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Nine Dumb Arguments Against Health Care Reform
And One Dumb Argument For It

Paul Waldman at American Prospect offers a good survey of dumb arguments againt health care reform, but he drops a clinker on his foot: he argues that Blue Dogs can't raise budget objections now because they didn't do so during the Bush years.

The Blue Dogs claim to be deeply concerned about fiscal responsibility, but the
truth is that they are motivated almost entirely by ideology. Nothing wrong with that, but don't try to tell us their only concern is deficits. Were that the case, they would be pushing not just for a public option to be part of the bill but for it to be open to every American citizen or company that wants it, because that would save the most money. ... [I]f they were only concerned about fiscal responsibility, they would have opposed the Bush tax cuts, supported tax increases to pay for the Iraq War, or opposed the war and its $2 trillion price tag entirely. But of course they didn't.
Translated: you were wrong before, so you have no right to be right now. This is incoherent. They have every right to be smarter today than they were yesterday.

This is not to concede that "the Blue Dogs" were insufficiently aggressive in the Bush years. "Blue Dog"a big category, perhaps somewhat open-ended. But I have always thought Jim Cooper's Financial Report was among the best budget criticisms availableback then Critics will say--yeh, but he was death on social programs soft on the war. Possibly but I should say that that the same criticism might be tossed back at his critics: lots of lefties would howl about the costs of the war, while soft-pedaling any concern about the costs of social programs. Of course, they were both right: governments have to pay for what they spend somehow, and it is irresponsible for either side to go bandying dollars around without a responsible program for bearing the cost.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Letty and Choice of Law

Before there were Delaware corporations and Cayman Islands hedge funds and Cook Islands asset protection trusts, there were Nevada divorces. The characters in Letty Fox: Her Luck by Christina Stead, understand this: they know that the task of a young woman in the 3os is to get married, and collect alimony. Well, yes, there is the matter of a divorce but this is a transitory instrument: a train trip to Reno, a bit of lipstick on the pig of the local residency requirements. and then home with a (sometimes fragile) triumph on a piece if paper. But Grandmother Morgan knows that you can't push it too far:

Now, if we start plundering the men, if we burden the trade with more than it can bear, it stands to reason that Congress of the Supreme Court or whoever does these things, don't you see, will start to go over the situation and we will get either no alimony at all, or else no divorce (which would be awful, girls, after all), or else a uniform law; and there are no pickings when there is a uniform law. You see what we women have now, in the U.S.A., is an arbitrage business ; we make pickings, even a fat living out of the differences between state laws, an excellent business, considering there are forty-eight states and not only a difference in the laws, but a confusion in the minds of judges, lawyers and divorcees.
--Christina Stead, Letty Fox: Her Luck (NYRB Paperback ed. )

Wiki has a splendid article about the culture of divorce at the old Riverside Hotel.

Liveblogging Napoleon's Russian Invasion:
Again the Russians Slip Away

Raimond-Emery-Philippe-Josephe de Montesquiou, Duke of Fezensac, born in 1784 into a distinguished French noble family, entered the army in 1807 and participated in all of Napoleon's major campaigns. He continued in service after the Restoration and died in 1867, a lieutenant general. He published his journal in 1849. Here he remembers the July days after Napoleon has failed to achieve a confrontation with the Russians at Vilna:

[In] three brilliant engagements ... Osrtrovno had been seized and the Russian army driven from one position after another up to the walls of Vitebsk. I crossed the battlefields which were still covered with the debris of these three battles and arrived at headquarters on the evening of the 26th ...
Thr army was camped in order of battle opposite the Russian army, separated from it by a stream called the Luchosa; the Emperor's tents were pitched on a height near the center. I spent the evening recounting my mission and listening in turn to an account of the engagements that just been fought. I was pleased to hear that several aides-de-camp of the Price Neuchâtel had distinguished themselves, and that the fine conduct of the troops promised even greater successes when the occasion presented itself. We were expecting a general engagement the next morning: great was our surprise when we saw at daybreak that the enemy had withdrawn.

--M. de Fezensac, The Russian Campaign 1812, 16 (U Georgia 1970)

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Garlic Wisdom

Spent a good deal of the day assembling the Lamb-and-white-bean cassoulet from page 292 of Paula Wolfert's The Cooking of Southwest France (p. 292-4*). It's a glorious dish and requires no special skill, but it does require lot of time and tedious hand labor. It occurs to me there is a fairly obvious economic story here. To do this kind of cooking, you will need someone in the kitchen with a fairly low opportunity cost on their time--a retiree (!) or, more traditionally, a granny in an economy where there just aren't that many skilled jobs to begin with. She can multitask by managing some child care--and the precise and delicate fingers of a nine-year-old girl are probably pretty handy for, e.g., stuffing those little slices of garlic into each individual collop of lamb. Now, if somebody would tell me where in Palookaville I can find a dish of pickled walnuts...

Afterthought: I guess I did enjoy one consolation that granny perhaps did not have--an Ipod with a download of the week's Economist. Now,that is double-tasking.
==
*There's a newer edition. I link to my beloved and gravy-stained old favorite.

Time to Get the Dandelions Pulled
And the Beefsteak Pounded

A friend of a friend brings this crime news update from Iowa:

Sheriff's Report

Sunday, July 19 12:27 a.m.: Report of kids rolling bowing ball down Main St.

--Butler County Tribune-Journal, Thursday, July 23, 2009, p. 10

Lowenstein on Jobs

Roger Lowenstein offers an admirably succinct (but depressing) summary of wht you already kinda sorta already knew about the meltdown and the job market (link). Shorter short Lowenstein: employers aren't hoarding employees any more; they are laying off as many as they can. And it is not just layoffs: the meta-story is that employers haven't been hiring since the dotcom boom went bust.

Copy that. In the recent kerfuffle, I think folks may have forgotten how brief and transitory the boom was. I can remember a student/grad from the early 90s--quite a good one, really, high grades, good presentable manner-who told me felt like the velvet cord had been drawn up just in front of him. In retrospect--if so, it was because they were reconfiguring the theatre for the Next Big Extravaganza. Granted that nobody wants another real estate boom--which was all smoke and mirrors from the start--another dotcom boom, with all its innovation and intellectual electricity--why, that doesn't sound bad at all.

Lowenstein also says that one out of six construction workers is out of work. Sic? I would have thought maybe it was five out of six.

Afterthought: Lowenstein also tangentially hits upon one of the reasons why "economics" drives so many people so nots. He refers to "Okun's Law"- - "a mathematical relationship," as Lowenstein puts it, "between the decline in output (that is, goods and services produced) and the rise in unemployment." Lowenstein says:

It held up pretty well until recently. But this time around, although the decline in output would have predicted a rise in unemployment to 8 percent, the actual jobless rate has soared to 9.5 percent. So this recession is killing off jobs even faster than the things — like automobiles, houses, computers and newspapers — that jobholders produce
Alright, fine. So far so good. Fine fellow, Okun, useful research. BUT IT ISN'T A LAW. It's an insight, a generalization, a quaint observation, a description of some data. BUT IT ISN'T A LAW or we wouldn't be able to blow it off so easily. Got that? IT ISN'T A LAW. And, yes, I am writing in caps.

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Two Footnotes on Gates

I must say I am impressed at how much of a hold the Gates case seems to have taken on the public imagination--not just Fox News, nor the extremes of the blogosphere, but here it is the lede story in my paper New York Times--second lede in the Wall Street Journal (i.e., Saturday morning). I can hardly expect to kick the can very far downfield, but I do think it my obligation to cry out against what might be the dumbest public policy suggestion since somebody told Thomas Jefferson he ought to try an embargo on European trade:

[S]houldn't we at least entertain the possibility that Gates, at some point in the transaction, decided that baiting Crowley into arresting him would constitute a "teachable moment" about police misconduct toward black people? If he decided that getting himself arrested, under circumstances where the arrest couldn't stand up and would make the police look bad, might protect some younger and less well-connected black man from false charges of disorderly conduct, resisting arrest, and assault and battery on a police officer, that wouldn't have been a silly calculation to make.
Source: link, but to save him unnecessary embarrassment, I will not repeat his name of the author of this idiocy here. Anyway, I trust it is apparent to all reflective readers that this is the kind of logic that could only sound plausible in a first-tier faculty common room. "Teachable moment," you say? "Police misconduct?" Baby, we've teachable-momented ourselves into a point where the wingnuts think they turn it into a resolution of censure against the President. "False charge of disorderly conduct," you say? Actually, I agree with you on that one--or want to agree with you:mouthing off to a cop is not (or should not be) an offense. But my intuition is that somewhere between 30 and 70 percent of the electorate think Gates damn well got what was coming to it--and if it really wasn't disorderly conduct before, maybe the natural consequence is that we will redefine "disorderly conduct so that it will be next time. And what is this about "resisting arrest, and assault and battery?" So far as I can see, the best thing the coppers have going for them here is that they did not overcharge--they took the cheapest item from the hors d'oeuvres side of the menu and left the raw meat quivering on the platter. One more "teachable moment" like this and some looney will start shouting that we should send 'em all back to Africa.*

The whole scenario sounds like nothing so much as Inspector Clouseau. But wait; here is Inspector Clouseau, offering up a piece of advice which, by comparison with the item above, comes across as positively statesmanlike:
If you’re afraid of the Police, or feel some urge to call them dirty names, drive someplace with lots of people (with camera phones) before you pull over. The Police are well aware of the consequences of beating on you in public while being recorded.
Now that, my friends, could be a teachable moment.
====
*Disclaimer: rhetorical overkill. The staff and management here at Underbelly central does not endorse the idea just suggested; it thinks the idea just suggested would be more or less as dumb as the idea suggested earlier in the column. The whole point is that once you paddle into the maelstrom of stupidity, it is only a matter of time before all good sense gurgles hideously down the drain.

Mrs.Fox and Arina Petrovna (and Robert Frost)

Quite without intending to, I have stumbled into the literature of old age--specifically female old age. There are two instances in particular. One is Mrs. Fox, mother-in-law of Solander, mother-in-law of Mathilde, and so one of the dizzying circus of hustlers, dependents and naifs who swirl through Christina Stead's Letty Fox: Her Luck. Mrs. Fox is certainly not a naif. She she may have been a hustler, although this seems doubtful; at any rate, she is old and her powers may be seen to weaken. She is, alas, as dependent, or at least one who lives as such, not-very-effectively charming and wheedling herself to a bare sustenance day after day. She talks--my heavens, how she talks, pages at a time, with only the slenderest sense of narrative order. She's funny for he reader to listen to, but probably not so much if you are related to her. At the end of one such monologue, her daughter-in-law asks:

"Will you have some ccoffee?"
"If it is fresh."
"I don't reheat it."
"Reheat it: well, that to me is poison. I can't take it. That's another kind of thing, altogether."
"Mother, I asked you would you have some coffee!" [A pause.]
"Is it fresh? Who knows? What is she talking about?" [A pause.]"Not if it is reheated. I'm very sorry, I thank you, but I can't."
"I told you it was fresh."
"Well, if it's fresh. . . . Reheated, you say? No. All right, if it's fresh, but you say--" [A pause.]
"Here's your coffee."
"So latae in the afternoon? I don't know, my dear. I don't sleep." [No repsonse.] "Tea is better. Is it fresh, anyhow?" [Mournfully, low.] "They don't tell me. I don't know. I know nothing!"
"Drink your coffee," said Mathilde, "it's getting cold."
"Cold, hot? What does it matter? I'm dying, my dear!"
"Mother, please don't keep saying that. Every time you come--"
"My dear Mathilde, if you knew--" Grandmother let out a great cry, with a fresh voice, a wail; "I can't keep going any more; it's all over, my dear."
In fact, it is nearly over; a week later, Mrs. Fox is dead: "It was only then that Mathilde had the sense to see what had been the matter; death had been at his tricks.
Mrs. Fox was a dependent most, perhaps all, of her life.In Shchedrin's The Golovlyov Family," we are faced iwth Arina Petrovna who is quite another matter. Or was: for most of her life she bullied, sweated and otherwise dominated her family, her servants and anyone else in reach of the Golovlyov estate. But life is full of surprises; at the end of life she finds out that she too must subsist on the sufferance of others who have no instinct (but where would they have learned it?) to treat her any better than she treated others:
Day followed day with the depressing monotony so characteristic of country life, when one has neither material comfort, nor food for the intellect, nor work. Apart from the eternal causes that made personal work on the farm impossible for Arina Petrovna, she felt an inner revulsion against the petty cares that fell to her lot at the end of her life. She might perhaps have overcome her aversion had she had a purpose that would make her efforts worth-while--but that was just the point, she had no purpose. Everyone was sick and tired of her, and she was sick and tired of everyone. Drowsy idleness had taken the place of her former feverish activity and the idleness gradually demoralized her will, and developed in her inclinations she had not dreamt of a few months before. The strong and self-possessed woman whom no one v entured even to think of as an old lady had suddenly become a wreck, for whom there was neither past nor future, but only the present moment to be lived through.
On the evidence presented here, I suppose Mrs.Fox is marginally better off--at least there is someone to argue with her. But both women would have done well to harken to the advice of Robert Frost which, because it is late and because I am lazy--and because it sticks so vividly in my mind--I quote from memory:
The witch that came, the withered hag
To wipe the steps with oil and rag
Was once the beauty Abishag;
Too many fall from great and good
For you to doubt the likelihood;

Die early, and avoid the fate,
Or, if predestined to die late,
Make certain that you die in state:
Make the whole stock exchange your own!
If need be occupy a throne,
So nobody can call you crone!

Better to go down dignified
With boughten friendship at your side
Than none at all: Provide! Provide!

Friday, July 24, 2009

MB Meditates on MA

I can remember how impressed I was to discover that Lee, the Chinese servant in Steinbeck's East of Eden, rolls into his hidy hole at night with a copy of the Meditations of Marcus Aurelius (and cf. link).

Hey! I rolled into my hidy hole with a copy of MA! I was 22; I was doing boot camp at Fort Leonard Wood,MO. Or rather, "hidy hole" is an exaggeration: my "hole"was a bunk bed in as barracks full of new recruits, so it wasn't exactly "hidy," but nobody paid much attention to me so I was able to achieve a bit of privacy. And what a pleasure it was to discover that I was part of the invisible choir of sensitive souls honored in literature, if not on the firing range!

Like I say, I was 22, which was probably already pushing it a bit. I should say the maximum respectable age for actually reading Steinbeck is about 19--anything after that is a case of arrested development. Same with Atlas Shrugged. But I was a slow starter (in fact, I never did get around to Atlas Shrugged).

It took me a while to grasp the point that Steinbeck is for the young. It to me longer to figure that something of the same sort may be true of Marcus Aurelius: his natural audience may be proud, lonely, sensitive (post-) adolescents in dusty Army camps or forlorn hidy holes the world over (I'll bet you a crumpled packet of Camels that Plato in Beetle Baily read the Meditations). I do remember marvelling over the book. And I do remember wondering--how did this guy find fhe time for all these lucubrations, what with running a great Empire and all?

Comes now Mary Beard to explain that it wasn't that big of a deal.

If a text like this were to be discovered today in the sands of Egypt, not tied to the name of an emperor, we would almost certainly interpret it as a set of fairly routine philosophical exercises--the kind of thing that a philosophically trained member of the Roman elite would compose to keep himself in good intellectual shape. Although we often choose to read it in a narrowly personal way, much of the material draws on a fairly standard repertoire of ancient hilsophical theory.
See "Was He Quite Ordinary?" London Review of Books 8-9, 9 (23 July 2009)

Oof. I guess that is not quite the same thing a saying that he did not write them at all. Still, she suggests, the way that we relate to them is defined by the fact that they are attributed to an emperor:
[P]art of the contemporary appeal ... lies in the feeling that the Meditations offer us a a rare glimpse into the personal dilemmas of the man in charge of the Roman world.
She also points out ho much of our encounter with the Meditations is determined by the work of later editors:
We now read Marcus' Meditations as a coherent work organized in 12 separate books, further subdivided into separate sections, under an overall title. All these features are modern, and combine to give us the impression that we are dealing with a private introspective work of literature, somewhere on the spectrum between Augustine's Confessions, the theological theorising of Pascal's Pensées and an 18th-century commonplace book. In fact, we have no information on the origin and purpose of the work at all....
And she also--a final blow--suggests that it isn't really all that readable. "[N]o one except an academic philosopher could possibly read the original from start to finish." By "original," I assume she means Marcus' "rather thorny" (as she calls it) Greek. Can't say, haven't tried. I do admit that even in my enthusiasm, I found large parts of the Meditations ro be pretty much of a slog. I read the old Casaubon translation, an Everyman's Library edition pinched from my girlfriend's roommate. It has an air of quaint obscurity which can be both attractive and repellent at the same time. Still, there are passages that struck me like lightning and stay with me today.
The time of a man's life is as a point; the substance of it ever flowing, the sense obscure; and the whole composition of the body tending to corruption. His soul is restless, fortune uncertain, and fame doubtful; to be brief, as a stream so are all things belonging to the body; as a dream, or as a smoke, so are all that belong unto the soul. Our life is a warfare and a mere pilgrimage. Fame after life is no better than oblivion. What is it then that will adhere and follow? Only one thing, philosophy. And philosophy doth consist in this, for a man to preserve that spirit which is within him, from all manner of contumelies and injuries, and above all pains and pleasures.

--Marcus Aurelius, Meditations II, XV
(tr. Méric Casaubon, Everyman's Library 1906)

To young men everywhere finding their "soul[s] restless, fortune uncertain, and fame doubtful," I suspect the Meditations will continue to appeal, and the fact that Mary Beard finds them a mere copy book exercise--while a plausible claim--is not likely to dent their enthusiasm.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Appreciation: Herman on Churchill and Gandhi

Near the end of World War II, as India's elite faced off against Britain's elite in irreconcilable opposition over the cause of Indian independence, Mohandas K. Gandhi sent a letter to Winston Churchill:

Dear Prime Minister, You are reported to have a desire to crush the simple 'Nakie Fakir' as you are said to have described me. I have been long trying to be a Fakir and that naked--a more difficult task. I therefore regard the expression as a compliment, however unintended. I approach you then as such and ask you to trust and use me for sake of your people and mine and thorugh them those of the world.
It's an arresting anecdote, precisely the sort of story you'd expect Arthur Herman to deploy Gandhi & Churchill: the Epic Rivalry that Destroyed an Empire and Forged Our Age. The trouble that the letter was lost in the mail, never delivered, or at least not until its punch had passed. The story thus illustrates Herman's key structural problem in assembling this dual biography. That is: Gandhi and Churchill never really engaged with each other directly. Aside from the missent letter, they had only one other direct contact: a personal meeting back in 1906 when Churchill was /Secretary of State for the Colonies and Gandhi achieved an audience with him in his role as advocate (supplicant?) for the causeof overseas Indians in South Africa; Churchill pretty much cleaned his clock.

Of course they came to know of each other as Gandhi evolved into his role as the principal symbol of the campaign for Independence and Churchill, as its most energetic and vociferous opponent. Even here, Herman offers no evidence to suggest that Gandhi ever personalized his campaign on Churchill. Churchill for his part did personalize his campaign on Gandhi--"this malignant subversive fanatic," Churchill once called Gandhi. Yet it was a strangely abstract sort of hostility. As detailed by Herman, Churchill's public record makes it tolerably clear that Churchill never understood Indian politics, nor Gandhi's place in it. All the more credit, then, to Herman for assembling such a readable and informative account, on a premise that might not work.

Still even with its inherent limitations, the comparison is instructive. It helps one to see, for example, how Churchill and Gandhi were in many ways more alike than either would have liked to believe. They were both romantics,in the sense that the had vividly imaginative and fully articulated pictures in their mind of the political worlds for which they strove. Gandhi's, what with his cotton dhoti and his spinning wheel, was surely more personal and eccentric (hardly anybody, even in the independence movement, came close to sharing it).

Churchill's vision was, of course Empire--but not just any empire. The thing about Churchill was it his view of Empire was so benign. For all his excoriating rhetoric, he had an odd streak of generosity about him; he also seems genuinely to have believed that one of the evils of the independence movement is that it would victimize the underclasses.

And here is another, perhaps even more important,, point of convergence: both Churchill and Gandhi entertained a vision of an empire that worked--where the human spirit could flourish and soar. Indeed Gandhi in his younger years (like so many of the Indepence elites) was an insatiable Anglophile. He had lived just shy of three years in London in his youth: he trained as a barrister and was called to the bar. It was there that he established his affinity for British culture (and there also where he encountered so many of the crack-brained ideas that would come to dominate his political thinking: vegetarianism, theosophy, and suchlike).

Gandhi thus did not begin as a separationist: his primary purpose in his early years (as an advocate in South Africa) was to insist that the British live up to its own high standards of justice and good order. But even after he went back to India and began to play a role in the indepencence movement, he continued to operate on the premise that there were some things that a well-brought-up Britisher simply would not do. "Without this implicit moralcontract betweenruler and ruled," Herman observes shrewdly, "Gandhi's career would have been nasty, brutish and short."

One of the admirable aspects of Herman's book is the degree to which he avoids imposing any air of inevitabilityon the career of either man: he makes it clear how each career was riven with false stars, wrong turnings and perhaps lucky accidents. Of Churchill, perhaps we know this; there are many accounts of his impulsiveness, his opportunism and his long sojourns in the political wilderness. Of Gandhi, so often bathed in hagiography, the point needs more insistence. Indeed for purely structural reasons (though not for marketing), Herman might have done better to abandon the Churchill theme and to adopt the theme that he almost adopts: the story of the conflict between Gandhi and so many in his own country who would have gladly seen him out of the way or dead (in the end, of course, it was Hindu nationalists who did him in).

Among such competitors, three stand out in Herman's account. One was the brilliant, ambitious, impulsive Subhas Chandra Bose. It was Bose who distinguished himself during World War II by casting his lot with the Nazis and, later, the Japanese. He died (perhaps?) in a plane crash in 1945. I have heard Indians alive today wonder aloud what their life might have been like had he lived. I think this is a fanciful vision. Bose got little enough thanks for his choice: the Germans ignored him and the Japanese abused him. And in the end, he picked the losing team. But his memory persists.

A second was Muhammad Ali Jinnah, remembered now as the founder of modern Pakistan; most of his political career was based around creating a separate base (or state) for Muslims, against Gandhi's (and other's) dreams of a single unified India.

The third is perhaps most interesting of all--Bhimrao Ramji Ambedkar, a figure almost entirely forgottenin the west, though still present in the memory of Indians. Unlike Gandhi (or indeed, almost any other Indian political figure), Ambedkar's roots were among the poorest of the poor: he was a Dalit, an untouchable (and a 14th child in the bargain). Ambedkar's is a story you hear from time to time in India--a child of no resources who shows promise and finds himself taken up by powerful protectors. Ambedkar at last earned a PhD degree from Columbia University and emerged at home as a powerful and influential advocate of the untouchables from whence had sprung. Gandhi, of course, had his own view of the India's poor--and to the likes of Ambedkar, it was patronizing nonsense. Ambedkar spent the rest of Gandhi's life resisting Gandhi's program, and is one of perhaps few leading Indian voices who found it hard to say a generous word about him in death (it intrigues me that we always picture Gandhi in his dhoti; in the only statues of Ambedkar I have seen, he is wearing a suit).

These rivalries are pretty well forgotten now, at least outside India (I wonder how many in India have any exact knowledge of them?). Herman serves them all well by bringing them back to life. But one is left to wonder: was it an "epic rivalry?" Not really; there is too little direct engagement. Did it "destroy an Empire?" A curious might-have-been. Herman does apper to believe that Churchill played his hand badly, and may have played a role in the calamatous transition to independence in 1947--but it was going to happen one way or another, sooner or later. "Forged our age?" Well, yes. However inevitable indepence may have become; however artificial may be supposed rivalry between Gandhi and Churchill, still the world could easily have been a different place without the stamp of their personalities.

Re-pealing The Onion

The Onion reports that it has been sold to a Chinese conglomerate. Apparently not everyone realized it was a joke. Well, I can relate. With a name like the "Yu Wan Mei Amalgamated Salvage Fisheries and Polymer Injection Group," how was anybody ever going to guess? (Yu Wan Mei, get it? Oh, say it fast two or three times). Cf. link, link.

Alright, children, very funny. But I remember a few years back when the US Attorney at Sacramento conjured up a fake shrimp fishery to create a bribery sting in the State legislature. When the dust settled the USA undertook to get his fake fishery law repealed. But it turned out there were real shrimp fisheries who thought the law a pretty good idea.

So I'm watching to see what happens when the owners of the real Yu Wan Mei Amalgamated Salvage Fisheries and Polymer Injection Group show up saying they don't find it funny at all. Hey, getcher popcorn here folks. Amalgamated with fake fish waste.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

The Vagaries of Language: Two Accounts

Tricky business, language. Two illustrations. First, a discussion of how folks in the Italian corner of Switzerland manage "dialect":

Dialect...in Italian Switzerland...runs along the edges of social divisions, age, sex and class in fascinating and complex ways. ...Dialect is the language of neighbourliness and the commune, but ... its use reflects very subtle canons of social behaviour. The country man or woman in a city shop may use dialect with impunity, but the middle-class city-dweller wil use Italian, certainly at first, less the shop girl feel insulted by such excessive familiarity. Similarly, the middle-class city dweller who returns to the village of his origin would give even greater offence if he did not speak dialect from the beginning.

...In traditional middle-class families, parents speak dialect with each other, as do the children, but children speak to parents and parents to children in Italian. ... Teachers chat in dialect int he common room but speak Italian to pupils in the classroom and in all other encounters. Children speak dialect among themselves and, of course, Italian to teachers. ... [In one research study] the boys spoke dialect among themselves but Italian to the girls, and the girls dialect among themselves but Italian to the boys. ... Adult men use dialect more than adult women, especially in towns and cities. ... Italian is the language of public life and dialect the language of private social relations. Hence it is not surprising that, as soon as a political organization or government body becomes larger than, say, twenty people, which it will generally not do on village level, Italian replaces dialect
--Jonathan Steinberg, Why Switzerland? 143-4 (2d ed. 1996)

And here, a more straightforward of all solutions, from the most British of azll 20th Century political leaders, India's Jawarhalal Nehru (Harrow, Cambridge, Inner Temple), who spoke English far more easily than he spoke any Indian language:
In any discussion Nehru would listen carefully to his interlocutor's accent, then carefully calibrate his own so that it would sound at least one social cut above.

--Arthur Herman, Gandhi & Churchill(Kindle 2009)
[Sourcing Nirad Chaudhuri,]

I Think his is a Joke

But, since it's McKinsey, you can't be too sure. Link. HT, these guys.

But Who the Hell is Charles Barkley?

Larry likes this one:

These are my new shoes. They're good shoes. They won't make you rich like me, they won't make you rebound like me, they definitely won't make you handsome like me. They'll only make you have shoes like me. That's it.

--Charles Barkley

Bernie and the Birth Certificate

One of my favorite undergrad instructors back at Antioch in the 1950s was a guy named Bernie Weisbesrger, who taught Intro to Western Civ. He was not the sort to dress up in costume, but he did do a marvellous rendition of Martin Luther in German to show us, as he said, just how argumentative those Protestant reformers could really sound. That sort of thing.

Bernie's introduction on the first day of the first semester, was an introduction to the historical method.

Good morning, my name is Bernard Weisberger. At least I think it is Bernie Weisberger. Indeed, I sincerely believe it to be so, but of course the sincerity of my own belief is no evidence at all for the truth of the proposition at issue. Aside from my own belief--my mother told me my name was Bernard Weisberger. She perhaps had the attributes of a good witness, but she might have been mistaken, or she might have been lying. I have also seen a birth certificate saying that I am Bernard Weisberger, but of course it might have been forged, or it might not be really mine at all...
You can see where this is going. We were off on a merry romp through the jungles of critical judgment, laced with the darker menace of phyrronism. That, even more than the bare substance, became the agenda for a truly memorable undergraduate course. The lesson, at least as I understood it, was twofold. On the one hand, nothing is certain--certainly not your mother nor the state. On other hand--and I think this was perhaps equally important, if easy to obscure--on the other hand, life goes on. Nothing is certain but we make judgments and act upon them, all the time recognizing that we really do not, in the strict sense, have any idea what we are talking about it.

I think of this whenever I try to follow the allegations about how the holocaust was a fantasy, or that the moon landing was a smoke-and-mirrors show, or any of the rest of the catalog of fantasies in the Rough Guide to Conspiracy Theories (a delightful book, by the way, highly recommended). Strictly speaking, I suppose it is possible that, e.g., umpty ump pretended survivors gave consistent false testimony on the attempted eradication of the Jews. But I don't think it is even remotely likely and I have long since relinquished according the idea any but the most transitory thought.

Still, one remarkable and easy-to-ignore fact about virtually all conspiracy theories, together with urban legends and suchlike, is that they respond to real human concerns. The idea that those nice Germans would do something so awful to all those Jews is just too awful to bear (and besides, you know, those people are such whiners!*) The thought that a bunch of incompetents in Washington could execute anything as complex as intergalactic travel is just too distasteful to contemplate, etc. There's a wonderful novel by André Gide, now largely, it seems forgotten, called Les Caves du Vatican, aka Lafcadio's Adventure, about a gaggle of con men who undertake to disencumber prosperous Catholics of their wealth on the premise that the real Pope is being held prisoner in the basement--because no real Pope would utter all the pernicious nonsense we are hearing today!

The model for Gide's novel may have been Leo XIII, propounder of the (only very mildly) reformist encyclal De Rerum Novarum. It's easy to imagine Rush Limbaugh (say) reading that line about "
"the misery and wretchedness pressing so unjustly on the majority of the working class" and oofing his cookies. Surely, surely, this paltry shadow of a real pope--surely he must be an imposter!

So it is hardly surprising that some segment of the population sincerely entertains that the proposition that the incumbent President was not born in the place where the (alleged) birth certificate or the (putative) newspaper from that day and place says he is. And they may be right. For all I know, he was born in Kenya; hell, for all I know, his middle name is Murray and he arrived full-blown from the planet Zyrcon. The only surprise, I suppose, is that the cause is taken up by prominent people in a party that wants to be taken seriously as part of government--that people who look like grownups will struggle so hard not to be seen as such.

Afterthought: Come to think of it, has anybody ever seen a birth certificate for Rush Limbaugh?

--
*Irony.

Update: He's alive! And, I hope, well, I hope enjoying a hard-earned retirement after a long and distinguished career.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Moss and Ippolito

Here's a shout-out for two books that may ocunt as a genre. One is David A. Moss, A Concise Guide to Macroeconomics (2007), which filled the course of a plane trip east a couple of weeks back. The other is Richard A. Ippolito, Economics for Lawyers (2005), which has occupied a few idle hours since summer.

The common thread is that they are both bare-bones intros to technical subjects--books that pare their subjects down to an (irreducible?) minimum, without gross oversimplification or serious intellectual dishonesty.

I suppose a second common thread is that they are both "service" books, written about one discipline for another. Moss says his book "began as a note on macroeconomics for my students," i.e., at the Harvard Business School. Ippolito's book developed (per a jacket note) out of his "immenely popular class at George Mason Universtity Law School." Popular indeed.


As to the macro book--I never actually took a course in macro and so learned what little I know ono the fly. I've never quite understood why professors do it as they do. Teaching econ to adolescents must be a challenge in any event, and the macro books, with all their charts and graphs, must leave most students entirely ignorant of exactly what they are talking about, and why. Moss' students are a bit older, and by definition, more or less the cream of the crop. Still, I think he does right to begin with some explicit non-patronizing introduction as to just what he is doing, and why. From there, he plunges headlong into the basics: money supply, inflation, expectations. He follows with an admirable "short history" and just a bit of GDP accounting, and a discussion of exchange rates. The only disappointment is that he published just a bit too early: he doesn't get to discuss the almost total collapse of macro theory in the current uproara.

Ippolito's is a bit more ambitious. Once again, it is most easily understood in comparison to a conventional textbook. Ippolito tries very hard to throw out just about everything that isn't essential to the main line of his argument, and in particular, to what he perceives as the needs of lawyers.

Given the context, it is perhaps particularly worth noting what Ippolito's book is not: it is not a text in "law and economics"--that monster hybrid bred out of professional restlessness and by a crude theory of operant conditioning. There are a number of books that purport to do "law and economics" for law student, but I never saw one that got it quite right. They all seem to assume either too little or too much. Too little, in the sense that they feel constrained to some basic economic groundwork although they don't really want to. And too much, in that they virtually all roll off into flights of fancy on the nether end of professional learning. Ipollito understands he is here to lay the basics. He does his best to couple them with plausible illustrative examples from basic law material. The best thing I can say for both these books is that I wish I taught courses in which I could use them (although I suspect I will steal just a bit from each, for my course in basic finance). If there is a genre here, it's a worthy one. In any event, the books are worthy in their own right.

How Not to Run a Police Department

I wouldn't think for a moment of passing judgment on the propriety of the Cambridge police arresting a prominent professor of African-American history for breaking into his own home (roll that sentence off the tongue a few times). But I will offer what I take to be a an instructive anecdote.

Here at Palookaville U, we enjoy the presence and services of one of world's foremost authorities on the butterfly. He's a treasure and a lovely guy to boot. But he looks like a street person--scraggly beard, ducktaped Levis (okay, I made up the ducktape, but you get the idea). In short, he looks like a hobo. And being a butterfly expert he spends a lot of his time hanging out under bridges.

My wise friend Ignoto says: it is the job of a Palookaville cop to know the difference between Dr. Butterfly and a hobo. Even though it is not obvious, it his job.

Jump cut to Cambridge. Let's stipulate from the outset that when a cop sees two guys with backpacks trying to force the front door, it is not unreasonable to inquire. Let's stipulate that if this had been a real burglar and the cop had given him a bye, why then he would have been in trouble for that, too. I would also like to believe (though I am sure this is more contentious) that it is not actionable to address a cop as "Yo' Mama."

But n0ne of this is the point. The point is that if you are a cop, you do not want things like this to happen, period. You don't want to get into a mess where your story is going world wide in every major news outlet. You want things to be orderly, peaceful, and, most of all, quiet. Move along, folks, nothin' to see here.

As a minimum, I would think this means knowing something about your neighborhood. The story says that the professor lived "a few blocks from Harvard Square." My guess is that this is a fairly upscale neighborhood, full of high-prestige famous-all-over-town celebrities with (I suspect) a vast sense of entitlement (not, we are not talkin' race here; we're talkin' Harvard professor). A good cop is going to know who is who, or, more precisely, who expects to be recognized, and who will ring the phone off the wall in the chief's office in the morning if he is not. A good cop at work in his own neighborhood knows the difference between a Harvard professor and a housebreaker.

And again quite aside from the narrow rightness of the matter--I'll bet that's what his shift commander was telling him after it all blew up last night.

Aferthought: One more anecdote which probably doesn't prove anything. I used to have a '65 Mustang --crappy car, dumb mistake. But one night, I left work at the University to make the 90-mile (sic) drive home. I quickly determined that was way too foggy to drive; I turned around with the purpose of dumping my car in a campus parking lot, and then walking over to a motel. I saw the blue light behind me.

I got out of the car and walked back to the cruiser. "I don't know what you stopped me for," I said, "but I probably did it..." and then told him what I just told you now.

The cop was black, a compact little man with sergeant's stripes. Once he saw I was an old white guy, he lost all interest in me. "Okay, professor, have a nice night..."

Review the bidding: an old Mustang creeping around campus at eight miles an hour in the dark. Not a bad call, was it?

Update: Hoo boy, that didn't take long.

Monday, July 20, 2009

Hey, I Could Do That!

[Nassim] Taleb [he of Black Swans, etc.] seems to earn his daily bread by showing up and being kind of witty.
(link). Fn.: I see that Taleb's Wiki lists his occupation as "epistemologist."

Sanford's Armageddon

If Governor Marc Sanford really wants to turn his life into a career of Biblical of the proportion, here is another possible point of contact: Father Sergius, from the Tolstoi story of the same name. Father Sergius' response to the reality of sexual anarchy was to give all his property and retire to a monastery for a life of fasting, self-mortification and prayer. In the end, Father Sergius found he wasn't good enough for the sarcedotal path and wound up working as a handyman for a rich peasant. Sanford's achievements as an Eagle Scout might yet come in handy.

CIT: Not Yet

Oh, that's good: CIT has apparently escaped its near-death experience with a big chunk of new money (and the government wins this particular poker game).

Oh, that's bad: but as Felix Salmon points out, it comes with a humongous interest rate and a security interest in everything except the CFO's underwear. A bit like the deal Carlos Slim made for with the New York Times.

Oh, that's good: But it does mean there'll be somebody roped in with an incentive to pick up the pieces, once the problem resurefaces.

Afterthought: Everyone is saying that if CIT goes under, all these gazillions borrowers will be wiped out. But why woult that be? CIT's loan book is an asset, not so? The buyer would want to preserve the value of the assets, not so? And this would include continuing to collect and enforce these obligations, not so? So, what's the problem?

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Shchedrin on Drunkenness

There's certainly no shortage of literature on drunkenness, perhaps never surpassing Malcolm Lowry's Under the Volcano. But Schedrin's The Golovlyov Family offers a brief summary which, for concision in horror, is hard to beat:

At nine o'clock, when the lights were put out in the office and men went home to their lairs, he put on the table the bottle of vodka and a slice of bread thickly covered with salt. He did not begin on the vodka at once but gradually stole up to it as it were. Everything around him was dead asleep; only mice scratched behind the wall-paper that had come unstuck, and the clock in the office ticked insistently. Taking off his dressing-gown, with nothing but his shirt on he scurried up and down the heated room; sometimes he stopped, came up to the table fumbling for the bottle, and then began walking again. He drank the first glass making traditional drinkers' jokes and voluptuously sipping the burning liquid; but gradually his tongue began babbling something incoherent, his heart bet faster, and his head was on fire. His dulled mind struggled to create images, his deadened memory strove to break through into the realm of the past; but the images were senseless and disconnected, and the past did not respond with a single recollection, sweet or bitter, as though a thick wall had risen once for all between that which had be and was now. All there was before him was the present in the shape of a tightly locked prison in which the idea of space and time disappeared without a trace. ...
--Shchedrin, The Golovlyov Family 57-8 (NYRB ed. 2001)

This is just a sample; there's more.

Two ECMHs: What Thaler Said

The Economist's postmortem on the place of academic economics in the late uproar is crisp and intelligent, not least for this account of Richard Thaler, expressing a point I've tried to make here before (link, link):

The [Efficient Capital Market] hypothesis has two parts, he says: the “no-free-lunch part and the price-is-right part, and if anything the first part has been strengthened as we have learned that some investment strategies are riskier than they look and it really is difficult to beat the market.” The idea that the market price is the right price, however, has been badly dented.
Afterthought: I'm sure that Thaler has long since noticed that his craft-appropriate surname is the root of the word "dollar."

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Postmodern Reads

Pomo_key
Jorge Luis Borges' "Labyrinths"Icons_234569
Robert Burton's "Anatomy of Melancholy"Icons_3412
Italo Calvino's "If on a Winter's Night a Traveler"Icons_467
William Faulkner's "Absalom! Absalom!"Icons_3512
Michael Herr's "Dispatches"Icons_13
Franz Kafka's "Metamorphosis"Icons_351112
Milan Kundera's "The Book of Laughter and Forgetting"Icons_12367
Vladimir Nabokov's "Pale Fire"Icons_23456
Tim O'Brien's "The Things They Carried"Icons_1347
W.G. Sebald's "The Rings of Saturn"Icons_13479
William Shakespeare's "Hamlet"Icons_34561112
Art Spiegelman's Maus I & IIIcons_1347911
Laurence Stern's "The Life and Opinions of Tristram Shandy"Icons_3456712

Flying Out of Boston

Flying from Boston to Palookaville yesterday:

  • Is it just me or is the flight from Boston a more high-toned class of readership? Lots of books; I didn't see a single Danielle Steele. Lady next to me had global tastes. She started out with How Soccer Explains the World, and topped it off with The Ornament of the World. Her companion seemed to be reading something about colloids.

    [Nosy? You betcha. If I come to visit at your house, I will inventory the bookcases.]
  • Is it just me, or do cross-country flight attendants, relieved of the obligation to serve meals, have more time on their hands? A lot of gabbing back in the galley. One of them seemed to be cramming for an exam--but hey, this is the Boston flight. Perhaps a staffing rule predicated on the assumption tht they will be serving meals, when in factc they do so no longer? Or a minimum-crew safety requirement?
  • Overheard:

    Momma: You didn't think I could walk downstairs and get the suitcase while we were flying, did you?
    Kid: [Long pause.] We could ask the driver!
    Momma (juggling a baby): No, I don't think that's possible.
    Kid (squirming to get out of his seat) I know, I could ask the driver!
    [Apparently the driver said "no."]

Friday, July 17, 2009

Amazon and 1984

I'm as puzzled as anybody else at the mad stupidity of Amazon stealthily erasing all the George Orwells off customer's Kindle readers (and, apparently, crediting the customerss' accounts). I agree with others that it is not quite like Barnes & Noble breaking into your living room and stealing your paper copy and leaving you a check (personal space issues blah blah). But it's close enough.

Meanwhile, I am intrigued to determine that a search on my own Kindle, brings up an edition of Keep the Aspidistra Flying at 99 cents, and two collections of essays--one at the standard Amazon price of $9.99, the other at $4.79. I also find an edition of 1984, "published Jul 11, 2009" at a prrice of $3.99--but that price is crossed out, and there is nothing in its place. Down at the bottom of the panel, it says "Not Yet Available." The publisher is listed as "Download eBooks." Several other Orwells seem to be (un)available on the same basis.

Meanwhile, that same search brought up three links to Ayn Rand's "Anthem two at 99 cents, one at a dollar.

An Impending Obama Train Wreck

Having time to kill in Logan Airport this morning, I gave more than usual attention to the front section of the New York Times. There seems to be a theme. Here's Graham Bowley on Goldman and JP Morgan Chase as the survivors of the late uproar, richer and more powerful than ever. Here's Krugman saying it'll be worse next time. Here's Julie Crewswell and Michael J. de la Merced, on how the nation's largest lendr-to-small-business is still shopping for an angel. And here's Stephanie Rosenbloom on how losing that lender-to-small-businesses would count as just one more insult to retail. Oh, and here is Bernie Becker, tell us how the House is taking action to prevent the closing of auto dealerships.

And here's Buce with the day's wrapup. Say what you will, I think there is good evidence that we dodged a meteor last fall: that we came within a gnat's eyebrow of total worldwide credit paralysis and the full meaning of that (hypothetical) impact is just too awful to imagine. We did it by hurling great gobs of money at rich people. It was a good thing to do. So pin a rose on Ben Bernanke.

The trouble is, nobody remembers. The bankers themselves have certainly forgotten as they go all into a hissy fit about how mean it was for that nasty government to give them all that money. The public remembers the giveaway part. They can't remember (maybe they could never really see) the deflected meteor. Krugman is certainly right that we seem to be blowing a chance for some sensible regulation, and that in the long run, this failure to act is likely to make things worse.

He's right, but politically, at least in the short term, that seems to me beside the point. Recall that we've got two parallel economies here--financial and real--with two parallel problems. "Financial" it seems we have solved in the short term, and even if it comes back again, that maybe won't happen until after 2016. The "real" problem--high unemployment, sluggish job creation--is just as real as it was last month, and perhaps even getting realer.

That last stuff, people notice. So far, they can see (a) that the bankers are getting richer with (b) taxpayer--i.e., "their"--money; while (c) they are getting bubkas. The longer this goes on, the more clearly they can see it.

This is all entirelyperfectly understandable, and in large part rational. But add another factor: clear-eyed as people may be about the shape of the problem they aren't nearly as coherent when it comes to figuring out what to do about it. They really don't have any idea what would amount to good bank regulation (aside from "hang the bums"). They find discussionos of bank regulation tedious and confusing. Their mind wanders. Meanwhile, they are happy to get behind measures like saving the car dealers (for extra credit: how many of the Cognressmen who are hot to save the car dealers are also among those who howl about he evils of govesrnment running a bank?).

Which brings me around to the lender-to-small-businesses, i.e., CIT. It now looks like (a) the government will let CIT fall off the cliff; and (b) some unknowable number of borrowers will be pushed into trouble as a result; oh, and (c) an unknowable but perhaps larger number of debtors will claim that heir problems were caused by the failure of CIT (I see that Blomberg has a story up tonight about an Alabama tool supplier, apparently the first company to blame its Chaper 11 on CIT--I have no idea whether justly or not).

You can see where I am going with this. The Chrysler dealers are just a blip. If business start going broke in asssorted Congressional districts; if they can claim with any degree of plausibility that it was CIT wot did it; and if the story catches on that the government pushed them off the cliff--why the howls from the pitchfork-and-tarbucket set will be loud enough to make the welkin ring.

I am not in any way delighted with this prospect. I voted for Obama and I would vote for him today. And like all grandstand kibitzers, I don't have anything like a plausible recipe for a different result. But if things keep going this way, the Presidency over the next few months is going to start looking a lot less fun.

Sunday, July 12, 2009

Appreciation: The Origin of Financial Crises

I'm off at the crack of dawn for a few days on the East Coast, but I don't want to let slip a chance to put in a good word for George Cooper's The Origin of Financial Crises. That's "Crises" plural--so, not just about the current uproar. I made that mistake a few months ago when I opened Cooper looking for a tictoc of recent events; no such luck, so I set aside in favor of this and this--and got back to Cooper just now.

Anyway, say this for Cooper: Origins is a marvel of exposition. I don't know of anybody who puts the common sense of macro policy* into such a straightforward and comprehensible form. Cooper's style is a bit jaunty and chatty which puts your--or at least my--guard up at first. But he is able to deliver with examples and and analysis that are simple without oversimplification.

Cooper's content isn't terribly original and I don't think he means it to be so. It is, rather, a distallation (in varying degrees) of John Maynard Keynes, Hyman Minsky and perhaps Bernard Mandelbrot. He casts it all in a frontal attack against the Efficient Capital Market Hypothesis. This works for purposes of presentation, but I think it is overdone: as I have argued elsewhere I think the ECMH emerges in the current debate emerges as not so much wrong but rather crashingly irrelevant--offering no help on issues for which it didn't presume to offer help to begin with.

Cooper also undertakes to hook his argument onto some 19th Century mathematics developed by the great Clerk Maxwell for use in the making of machines (he even reprints a critical Maxwell paper at the end of the book). It's elegant and it may be right, but I think it may be a sidetrack. Insofar at it is an accessible analogy, it risks a false comparison. Insofar as it is trying to say something about the behavior of markets, it is probablywell enough said by more conventional sources.

Which leaves us with a straightforward message, not exactly unfamiliar, but too much forgotten of late. That is: bubbles happen. Financial markets carry an inherent risk of instability. It is the "the job of the Federal Reserve...to take away the punchbowl just when the party gets going." Cooper quotes those words; if they sound familiar, it is because they come from former Fed governor WilliamMcChesney Martin, who died in 1998.
==
*Well: there is a wonderful mini-text on macro issues: David A. Moss, A Concise Guide to Macroeconomics.

Appreciation: Parade's End

Well, Chez Buce has completed its readaloud of Ford Madox Ford's Parade's End--all 836 pages of it, all four volumes including the one that Graham Greene seemed to feel shouldn't ever have been written. It was worth it (having done the work, how could we think otherwise?)--worth it, but I must say a bit of a slog sometimes. It's hard to remember a book that is such a conbination of dazzling structure, delicate insight and perverse, wrong-headed self-indulgent eccentricity--if I see another exclamation point or ellipse, I may break something!...but either way, I can't remember anything else quite like it.

I guess Parade's End is remembered (if at all) as a "war novel"--World War I again, as with so many others. But as Robie Macauley points out in a superb introduction, it is not about the war per se as it is about a whole way of life--call it "Edwardian" or more broadly "Tory," or for lack of anything more adequate, just "before the war."

Here it gets stylistically interesting. A second-rate novel would try to paint a panorama. Ford is acute enough to recognize that he can't do that so he focuses instead on a small number--half a dozen or so--incidents, carefully and lovingly developed: a progression d'effect, Macauley observes, channeling Flaubert. Most of these have little or nothing to do with the war itself, although I must say Ford's account of one German bomb landing on one English trench--and its aftermath--is as hair-raising a piece of war literature as ever I've read. Virtually all the others count as something closer to drawing-room drama, although the war is always somewhere in the background, a looming presence.

Reading the closing chapters this past week or so, I found myself to my own surprise reminded of another book I was reading at the same time --Gyula Krúdy's Sunflower. One of my problems with Sunflower is that I didn't know quite how to take it, because the world of rural Hungary seemed so far away. Oddly enough, Ford's Edwardian England seems almost equally distant, and I sometimes found myself just as wildered with Ford as I had with Krúdy. At one point, Mrs. B interrupted to say (testily?)--you're reading it as comedy. Are you sure it is comedy? The answers were no, I wasn't sure it was comedy, but yes, I was reading it as comedy because I couldn't think of it any other way. I suppose the fall of a civilization should not be lightly regarded but there may be something to laugh about in it even so.

I do think there is one insurmountable problem with Parade's End and that is a certain hollowness at the core--Christoher Tietjens, the hero, the protagonist, the one who acts or suffers (mostly suffers) through the tumultuous events of his time. Macauley reports that he was modeled on a real person. Maybe, but I suspect the really real person was Ford himself who, from his pictures, looks just about the same as Tietjens is described. I think the best you can say for Christopher is that he fits in the classic tradition of novelistic heroes, from Don Quixote to Prince Myshkin. The trouble is that both Don Quixote and Prince Myshkin are to be treated with irony, and it is the irony itself that makes them so rich and subtle. I suppose you can give an ironic reading to Tietjens, but I'm not sure Ford understood it or intended it.

In my mind, that is a major drawback, but it isn't fatal. Even given the difficulty with the protagonist, there is so much richness of detail in the individual scenes-comic or otherwise--that I'm delighted to have read it and will cherish the experience.

Saturday, July 11, 2009

The Dog Did Nothing in the Moonlight (Surplus Men Dept.)

I've been reading Jonathan Steinberg's Why Switzerland? in the hope of finding out something about how this mountain fastness became a banking power. On that point I think I may come away unenlightened, but I'm picking up some fascinating stuff along the way. For example, about the Peace of Aarau.

You remember? Course you do. That's the one that ended the Second Villmergen War (with me now?) in 1712. By Steinbserg's account, it was a bloody and bitter conflict, essentially a religious war, a fit successor to the dreadful Thirty Years' War that tore Europe asunder between 1618 and 1648. Yet it ended with in a settlement, shaky at first but enduring. More: it was a treaty in which (as Steinberg says) "[t]he Catholic party lost its commanding position ... and was forced to accept parity of faiths ..." He marvels:

Here was a group of defeated states, profoundly convinced of the God-given rightness of their cause, accustomed to think of themselves, and rightly, as the founders of the Confederation, and absolutely sure that the heretical beliefs preached by the Reformed pastors brought death and damnation. In the wings, a powerful Catholic ally [sc. France] with inexhaustible funds stood ready to finance their crusade. A war of revenge seemed natural, inevitable and right.

No war took place. The Confederation survived. Another turning point pased at which nothing turned.
Why not? Exhaustion may have been a factor--Protestants had been fighting Catholics here for 200 years. Realpolitik certainly played a part, but that only begs the question. But Steinberg offers another reason, bound to suit the prejudices of staff and management here at Underbelly--something about surplus men:
A very shrewd Englishman travelling in Switzerland at jsut this period put it well: "If they did not continually drain their Country, by keeping troops in foreign service, they would soon be so much overstocked in proportion to the extent and fertility of it that in al probability they would break in on their neighbors in swarms or go further to seek out new seats." Obviously the service of the Bourbon King of Naples was a better place to see a turbulent young Obwaldner than at the gates of Basel, and no doubt the acceptance of compromise owes much to the export of the uncompromising.
--Jonathan Steinberg, Why Switzerland? 35-37 (Second ed. 1996)

But I'm still looking for the bankers. I have a vague sense that I've heard somewhere about banking families from Lucca coming up to settle when things got too hot for them at home during thee counter-reformation. But I haven't yet been able to put any flesh on those bones.

Update: That stuff about Lucca--apparently I said it before.

Oh All Right, Very Funny, Very Funny...

Link. Actually, some of them are kind of cute. H/T Joel.

The Uighurs and the World

Ask a Uighur (I have done this) about his or her family background and you may find yourself baffled. You'll get an odd melange of stories about Uzbeks, Kazakhs, perhaps even Tadjiks, but nothing at all about what you thought you were asking for: the background of the Uighurs themselves.

There's a good reason why this is so. That is: the modern "Uighur" identity is in large measure a late-come thing, the work of a fairly small group of urban visionaries who wanted to work to develop the society of Turkic peoples in the Xinjiang basin and knew they had a better chance if had a single identity with some claim at a history.

There is absolutely nothing sinister about this. You could say it is just exactly what almost every European nation has done (not to say however many non-nations) to try to nurture a collective identity. But it helps to explain one problem the Uighurs face in their conflict with "the Han"--the majority Chinese with whom they are in such visible conflict just now. Tibetans really have a history; we'd probably know about them even if they weren't being beaten up on. For Uighurs, the story isn't nearly so rich or textured and therefore harder to tell.

You get a clue from the Uighur Wiki page, where you can find an account of a Uighur empire that ended in 840 AD and followed by--read it critically now--a longish, convoluted, fairly difficult-to-follow account of the adventures and misadventures of various Turkic people. The story only gets bite with the coming of the Soviets in 1921: thenceforward we get a Uighur identity.

None of this for a moment denies the reality of the conflict in Western China, rooted in a long-standing and persistent conflict of cultures. None of this obscures the fact that the Chinese have poured ethnic Han into Western China with the purpose (to all appearances) of swamping and ultimately dissolving the ethnic Turkic peoples. But it may help to clarify just why it is the Uighurs (might as well call them that) have so much trouble developing a story with any traction.

Well, Who'd Have Guessed...

Last week when I cracked that there ought to be some sort of "progressive taxation" on University employees in time of trouble, I assumed I was just being snide. But here is UC President Mark Yudof with just such a plan and it looks like it is going to happen:


Most University of California professors and staff would have to take between 11 and 26 unpaid furlough days a year, cutting their pay by 4% to 10% under a revised budget proposal announced Friday by UC President Mark Yudof.

The UC Board of Regents is expected to approve the emergency plan next week in response to deep reductions in anticipated state funding. ...

The proposed furlough days would progress in seven steps up the pay scale, from those earning less than $40,000 to those above $240,000. For example, the group earning $60,001 to $90,000 would face 18 furlough days, equal to a 7% pay cut. The stepped plan is a major change from a controversial earlier proposal that had only two salary groups, and from an idea to cut pay without offering furloughs in exchange.
Link. Though exactly how a faculty member "takes a furlough" is far from clear. The typical professor's career is built around his research agenda. Although she may draw a paycheck from the university, she is in fact a kind of entrepreneurial free agent, devoting his primary efforts toward more and better publication so she can promote herself to a better job or at least more prestige. Meanwhile, Yudof is making it clear that is proposal does not allow for class cancellations. Meanwhile the primary. That leaves what? Committee service? Most faculty either (a) pretty much blow that off; or (b) do it for fun--so in either case, it is unlikely that their output will change much. Student contact? The truth is, in most departments, students don't demand that-all much student contact, and if faculty members provide contact hours, the chances are they do it because they are motivated from a sense of loyalty to their craft.

So for faculty (unlike staff), what we have here is an outright pay cut. That's lamentable. They need to put food on the table, and they deserve to be recognized. But in their heart of hearts, most of them know that they love the job and that if they had to, they'd probably do it for for free.

Judge Sotomayor Again

Chris Mealy offers a provocative two-part comment re Sonia Sotomayor,each part of which deserve a response.

One: I had said that Judge Sotomayor struck me as "lonely." Chris said "worked for Souter." I don't agree at all. Seems to me that Souter is one of those rare creatures who actually enjoys his own company. For money, got zillions; he doesn't have to live up a dirt road in Weare. Hey, if he wanted bright lights, he could move to Concord. Sotomayor, meanwhile, is there in the West Village, ensconced--uneasily, as it seems to me--alone in the middle of her vast network.

Chris' other point is more intriguing:

What is the ideal temperament and personality for a supreme court judge then? I suspect creativity might not be that useful. Creative people often go too far and in weird directions. That's what makes them fun (I'm thinking of Posner here). A boring old grind with a good heart might be just right.
You know, I have often wondered about that. And I may have said earlier (I'm too lazy to check)--I think that of all the qualities you might want in a good judge, brain power is not at the top of the list. It may be on the list somewhere, but I think I'd put it somewhere around sixth or seventh, behind--

Well, behind what? Might depend on your point of view. For a lawyer practicing in her court, I suppose steadiness/predictability is at the head of the list. Followed by diligence (which is not the same as workaholism). An ability to listen. Empathy/compassion gets in there, although even compassion can be overrated if it blots out any sense of principle or focus.

I suppose "knowledge of the law" gets in here somewhere also, but again, I suspect that as a quality it maybe, if not overvalued, at least misunderstood. A judge should know the basics of course, but beyond that, but she can't be expected to know everything. And part of the job of counsel is to advise him on the law; to make sure he does not fall into error. See steadiness, diligence, an willingness to listen, empathy, supra.

What is that, five? Okay, maybe I will let brain-power come next, but with a warning. As with being a lawyer, being a judge is in large part drudgery (think Mickey Mouse in the Sorcerer's Apprentice). Any experienced lawyer can point to judges who have been at it too long and who get bored with it and get weird--and this peril is likely to afflict the smart ones more severely than the stupid.

I'm pretty sure that judge Sotomayor is not "brilliant" in this sense, and as I suggest, I think that counts in her favor (I think I am more or less agreeing with Chris here). A particular problem for her is that she is joining a court of people who, for the most part, count themselves as "brilliant." Some--Alito, Breyer, maybe Roberts and Ginsberg--may deserve the imputation. Others--Scalia and Kennedy--probably less so than they think. I suspect that Thomas is pretty sure he is not brilliant and I wish I could persuade him that he is perhaps the better for it (John Paul Stevens was off playing golf in Florida and not available for testing). Part of her challenge will be figuring out how to cope with such a bunch of thoroughbreds--it's one of the reasons I tended to favor the former dean at Harvard, who has been dealing with a stable full of prima donnas for years now. Or Judge Wood from Chicago, who has some how learned to put up with Judges Posner and Easterbrook. It's hard to guess how she will do it: the Second Circuit, for all its talent, is really not the same kind of club. For this duty, maybe Judge Sotomayor's best preparation was not her childhood in the Bronx, nor her coming-out at Princeton and Yale, but her time going to lunch in Chinatown in a bullet-proof vest.

Friday, July 10, 2009

John Calvin

Happy big 5-0-0 to Jean Cauvan, born in Noyon in Picardy on 10 July 1509. better known to the English-speaking world as John Calvin, sometimes held responsible for everything that is wrong with Anglo-Saxon Protestantism. That's a lot of influence--I was going to say "for somebody who never seems to be read"--but the Amazon Calvin community lists 115 "products." That's mostly books, although there is a listing for the DVD Boris and Natasha, which claims "John Calvin" as an auteur. Calvin gets a (perhaps unexpected) show of support from Marilynne Robinson, the author of Gilead and Home and Housekeeping in a number of essays where she declares her loyalty to a person she perceives as a misunderstood (or perhaps better, "not understood at all") writer.

Correction: The original version of this post listed Calvin's age as 400, not 500. Underbelly regrets the error.

No Waiting....

Four Berbers:

Four Berbers, No Waiting, Get It? Oh, Tee hee...

Gyula Krúdy

"That Dreadful Hungarian?" says Mrs. Pearce, "was he there?" I guess I share some of Mrs. Pearce's insularity and unease with a people she doesn't understand. Granted, I like Bartok a lot, and I've enjoyed a good deal of John Lukacs, even though I have always suspected he is laying it on a little for effect.

In just this vein, I can't quite figure out what to make of Gyula Krúdy and in particular of his "novel" Sunflower which comes to me from NYRB with Lukacs' enthusiastic endorsement. I say "novel," because I'm not quite certain whether it is that, or "meditation" or a "romance," or an extended parlor trick designed tto amuse the cogniscenti and leave the yokels (that would be me) gaping.

Like it or not, you'd have to say that Krúdy is "overheated," and that seems to be the point. Apparently he feels he can't tell the story of his homeland without turning off the air conditioner and turning on the exhaust fan. It's also wonderful in a way, though I guess it is a way that you would have to call, well, Hungarian:

It was a May twilight, when all things appear to be full of life and purpose, and there was nothing and no one moribund or suicidal near the golden, dusty highway. Frogs had not yet struck up their evensong, although one or two concert masters in the reeds did sound a few tentative croaks, basso profundo. It was easy to see that within an hour the impromptu concert would be in full swing--and who knows why frogs sing? A bridal veil lowered over the sun's disk. A day in May is still whimsical and sentimental, like a young bride running her fingers over the wolflike backbone of a man. She distributes her kisses equally among highwaymen, hanged men, deep ditches and coldhearted old birches. She belongs to everyone and no one. Meanwhile at nightfall the clouds are ascending so that rain might start to fall round about midnight, tapping and palpating like a physician, examining roof tiles, people's dreams, and checking the resonance of windowpanes. The rain swishes over meadows, dallies with the flowering trees, speeds up and slows down, just like a skilled dancer; and plays by herself in the night, like an orphaned child. But still, this is May, and even the oldest crone would be startled to find death's ugly black spider hiding in her nightshirt.

--Gyula Krúdy, Sunflower 191-2(John Bátki Trans., 1997 NYRB)

Judge Sotomayor's Loneliness

I hung onto every word of this morning's New York Times profile of Sonia Sotomayor. I confess having been somewhat underwhelmed with Judge Sotomayor as a Supreme Court choice. It's not I think she's a racist or a radical or any of the rest of the silliness that the slime machine has been throwing at her. It's rather simply because she struck me as a bit of an overachiever: a super-hard worker who can and does achieve a lot because, when you get right down to it, the practice of law is a form of the higher drudgery at which overachievers can often do pretty well.

The Times piece did an admirable of presenting her as three-dimensional human being. "To Get to Sotomayor’s Core," the Times reports, "Start in New York," fleshing its account out with winning and plausible tidbits about the Yankees. That's a plausible hook and the musters plenty of evidence to support it, but what struck me more than New York per se was the manic, obsessive pace of her life, coupled with what presents itself to all appearances as an appalling loneliness.

Granted, "lonely" may seem like an unlikely word to apply to somebody whose life is so full of her law clerks, her family, her colleagues, her friends--"a Puerto Rican tía, an aunt, replete with dishes of rice and chicken." But the story may tell more than it knows. "“You make play dates with her months and months in advance because of her schedule,” the Times quotes a friend as saying. And here's the ex-husband, and the ex-boyfriend--amicable separations both, so it appears (at least they have the sense not to throw bottles and dead cats at each other). “I cannot attribute that divorce to work," she tells the Times--anbd then goes on to do exactly that, without seeming to notice how flatly she contradicts herself. Another friend says she "walks with purpose," but the more you read, the more you wonder what the purpose might be, and whether she knows herself.

And now, if the Lord is willin' and the creek don't rise, she's off to Washington, to a new assignment in a new environment even more isolating and disconnected than the one in which she has spent her life. I wish her well. I think she is a well-intentioned choice and heaven knows she will do everything she knows how to make the best of it. But it's a little chilling to think of imposing all that burden on somebody who seems to face life so completely alone.

Thursday, July 09, 2009

Dumbest. Idea. of. This. Session.

And there is plenty of competition (link):

Womanless Library

Okay, not everybody is done with men:

Will Calls for Womanless Library

When Iowa attorney T.M. Zinkdied, his will directed that $35,000 be placed in a trust fund. After 75 years, Zink directed that the money be used to build the Zink Womanless Library, which would contain no books written by women and each entrance would state "no women allowed." Zink's daughter successfully challenged the will and the library was never built. Zink left his daughter $5 in the will.

See TruTV, Weirdest Wills.

Link. Thanks,Joel.

Brave Men There Were Before Agamemnon, Not a Few...

From a small museum in Utica, near Tunis:

That is:

D(is) M(anibus)
Iulius
Pullus
miles
c(ohortis) I F(laviae) A(frorum)
comilito
nes eo fec(erunt)
v(ixit) a(nnos) XXII
In English:
To the divine shades.
Julius
Pullus,
a soldier
of the First Flavian Cohort of Africans.
His fellow sol-
diers made this for him.
He lived 22 years.

Or "C I f a" might be "Centuratio I Fecit Annorum", i.e., "He served out one year as a centurion." Thanks to Michael and Pedar for translating; Michael adds: "The Latin is a bit shaky, especially eo, which would normally be ei (dative ei rather than ablative eo)."

The carving is obviously somewhat unstudied. And it is a rough, unfinished piece of stone. I.e., a labor of love, soldiers to a soldier.

Thanks Pedar also for making sure I didn't overlook it.

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

Dowry Baskets: I've Always Wondered

Recognize this?


It's a dowry basket, as offered in a shop window in a Souq in (I believe) Gafsa in Tunis--there's a whole window full of them, and more in the shops next door. The guy fills it with goodies for his beloved (gold is always acceptable, I am told).

Which brings up an issue that has always puzzled me: since it is the males who are pursuers and women the pursued, why is it the woman who typically brings the dowry? Apparently the best answer I have so far is: not always.

Twelve Chairs Again (aka Las Doce Sillas)

Courtesy of Netflix, we've now enjoyed our second avatar of The Twelve Chairs--that comic Russian about enterprise and mayhem during the birth pangs of a revolution. This one is not the Mel Brooks we saw a few days ago, and not the Soviet version: it's the work of Tomás Gutiérrez Alea, in his time (per Wiki) "an influential Cuban filmmaker." This one doesn't even get a mention in the director's Wiki. Best I can tell it was actually made in Cuba, shortly after the Revolution, and it is easy to see why he quickly made himself unwelcome in what so soon became an ugly police state. What's perhaps most remarkable how well the story (first crafted in Russia in the 20s) so well suits the new revolution and the new emergent dictatorship.

It's Getting to be a Meme...

... but you heard it here first:

Would a world without men really be so bad?

With scientists now claiming they can make sperm in a lab, does the world need men any more, asks Tanya Gold

[T]he possibility grows (and I'm wilfully hopping and skipping and bouncing over the science bit here) that we will at some vague point in the future be able to breed without men.

And so a misanthropic fantasy is conjured: what would a world without men be like? Would it be a gently slumbering paradise, full of women eating pot noodles and watching Dallas? Would there be more gilded, stripy cushions, but less armed robbery? Or would it be like being trapped in an Overeaters Anonymous meeting, or at an all girls' school - for ever?

Let us examine our history and see how men - the master race for all of our recorded history in almost every corner of every human civilisation - have fared so far. Applying all the fairness and equilibrium of my sex, naturally. And then I must ask myself: could women do better? ...
You can guess where this is going. For details, go here (H/T Joel). But she goes all squiggly at the end, with some saucy hints about the bonobo.

Afterthought: Tanya, meet W.C. Fields: If they didn't &%#!, there'd be a bounty on 'em.

Appreciation: Fool's Gold

There's every reason to that a book on the meltdown by Gillian Tett will be a profitable read. Covering credit markets for the Financial Times, she has had a front-row seat at the comedy. And her previous book (about the American takeover of a Japanese bank) was readable and instructive.

Fools Gold, her new book, is indeed worth the reader's effort, although it isn't quite as good as one might hope. A core difficulty is organization: for all her pretensions, Tett hasn't quite found a thread here, and the result is a narrative with rather less structure than either she or the reader might hope.

The problem might be with the editor. The subtitle is How the Bold Dream of a Small Tribe at J.P. Morgan Was Corrupted by Wall Street Greed and Unleashed a Catastrophe--one of those longer-than-the-text titles that seem to be so much the fashion among marketers these days.

But it doesn't really hold up, for a couple of reasons. One: virtually all her sources seem to be the J. P. Morgan people themselves. So she tells a story that cries out for more context, and critical scrutiny. One would love to know what other bankers have to say, either about their own work, or about the claims of the J. P. Morgan crew.

And two: even if you accept every word of the Morgan story is true, you come up against the fact that the crew disintegrated very early in the game; that virtually all went on to other jobs and other lives; and that indeed Morgan itself never played nearly so prominent a role in the events leading up to the meltdown as many--most?--of its major competitors.

Turn this point around: after several absorbing chapters about the work of the Morgan innovators, the authority of the narrative forces Tett to change her focus. And indeed she does: onto the merged, reorganized, JP Morgan Chase, and its celebrity CEO, Jamie Dimond. Dimond is one of the few senior bankers who has come through the meltdown with his reputation more or less intact (in some ways, enhanced). On the evidence, he seems to deserve at least some of the acclaim he has enjoyed, although in a story this complex, a lot of it is surely do to others, and an uncountable portion to sheer dumb luck. One difficulty with Tett's organizational structure is that she tells part of this story, but not as much as one might want: since she thinks she is telling the story of the Morgan wunderkind, she doesn't seem to notice that her focus has shifted to the bank as a whole, and leaves parts of that latter story somewhat casually dismissed.

One virtue of the story that she does tell is that she raises a lot of tantalizing questions which, perhaps inevitably, she does not answer. For one: how did it happen in the first place? How did it happen that J. P. Morgan, of all places--which almost anyone would say had a reputation for being somewhat stodgy and unimaginative--how did Morgan come to put together such a fissiparous mix of talent? Or for another: how come Morgan, having filled the can with fireworks, succeeded in kicking it down the street--sidestepping precisely those hazards implicit in the new financial innovations that led other bankers to grief? Was it Dimon? Was it (whatever this means) "institutional culture?" Was it dumb luck?

Sales of books like Tett's make it clear that there is a market niche avid for accounts of exactly what went on, and how. One recent account--William D. Cohan's House of Cards, about the collapse of Bear, Stearns--is helpful, but impaired by the fact that Bear was such an outliner that its failure may not teach us very much. Tett may have the opposite problem: the story of Morgan is not central to the story of the meltdown, precisely because it avoided the worst excesses and escaped the worst calamities.

Tett remarks at the end that she bring something special to this task because she was trained as a social anthropologist gives her a distinctive concern for "wider social matters." I think she may overrate the value of the purely technical training: it may be simply that her concern for "wider social matters" was what led her to social anthropology in the first place. Still, it is true that she exhibits a feel for context that may not be typical among credit analysts or even journalists who report on credit analysists. Either way, it's to her credit that she has found a mix of text and context that allow her to tell her story in a matter at once satisfying and compelling.

Tuesday, July 07, 2009

I'll Take Nazi War Criminals for $200, Alex!

Tom McMahon finds (in his bottom desk drawer?) a chart of IQs of defendants at the Nuremberg trials. What strikes me as interesting are two things. One, that we did it at all: folks really believed in that stuff in those days. And two, the scores aren't really all that dazzling. Okay, nobody is exactly a box of nails but the range from a ho-hum 106 (Julius Streicher) up to a not-quite-so-ho-hum 143. And that last is Hjalmar Schacht, more precisely Hjalmar Horace Greeley Schacht, the evil genius behind the Nazi's pre-war fiscal policy; he fell out of favor and actually ended the war in a concentration camp, having plotted to overthrow the regime (it is a moot point how far he was motivated by hostility to Hitler and how far by his own zeal to return to power). The vainglorious Herman Goering gets only a 138; the oily and manipulative Albert Speer, only 128.

Questions: how much does this matter, and how? Would these guys have been more effective if smarter? Or stupider? And, just for deviltry, how would these scores stack up against the leadership of the U. S. House of Representatives.

Why Mises? Why Hayek?

Roger Scruton writes:

...the Austrian school--...Mises and Hayk especially--whose defense of the market against state planning and socialist distribution had the on a new credibility in the light of the tyranny and economic disorder of the Bolshevik experiment.
--Roger Scruton, "The Journey Home" The Intercollegiate Review 31-28, 31 (2009)

I suppose this is technically correct to describe Mises and Hayek as a reaction to Bolshevism. and I don't suppose many readers will gag at Scruton's phrasing, but I think it think it obscures an important question. That is: how did two men (with a spare "von" before), each nurtured in so venerable, so august an institution as the Austrian Empire, have become such pillars of anti-statism?

There's a plausible answer, once you stop to think about it. That is: a good man might turn libertarian precisely because-not in spite of--its "conservative" trappings. The point is that the Austrian Empire, so venerable and so august, was also a blinking mess: a grotesque anachronism and a drain on the lifeblood of anything like a vigorous and dynamic modern economy. The Austrian Empire loved the First and Second Estates well enough--the military and the church--well enough, but for 19th-Century liberalism it had entertained something worse than contempt: it nourished incomprehension. Couple that with the fact that in the Empire nothing worked. Well: the Emperor worked, so they say, every day of his life. But the whole enterprise, so it is also said, came to represent a great antique cuckoo clock, ticking slowly and ever more slowly until it finally ground to a halt.


Okay, That Was My Next Guess

Froomkin to Huffington Post. I had suggested TPM. But TPM had a pretty good day yesterday, too. Now I will have to start paying attention to Huffington Post which, for all sorts of perverse reasons, I have been staying away from. Glenn Greenwald puts it all in context.

Monday, July 06, 2009

...and a Dylan Thomas Reading

Nigel Rees on Quote, Unquote last night was curiously dismissive as to the provenance of the parodyd, "Chard Whitlow," recorded here. It is, indeed, a parody of T.S. Eliot, but more specifically of his poem "Burnt Norton"--a fact I learned in college from my friend Kenny which made Kenny, in my eyes, the coolest guy around.

Searching for the Real America

Flipping through the night's detritus, I stumbled on the story that some lady hyping her website has deemed the best college town in America to be--ta da--Amherst, MA.

An obvious choice perhaps. But while I really haven't spent enough time in Amherst to judge, my impulsive, unedited, untutored, first thought was: boy, I'm glad I don't live there.

Hey, wait minute, Buce, whoa. What is this, reverse snobbism? You know perfectly well that college towns are really nice places, and Amherst surely carries niceness to a power of n.

Well, very likely (including, I suspect, the reverse snobbism part). So, what can I say in my own defense? This at least, perhaps: recall the old rule that too much of anything is funny. Think of a convention of undertakers. Or deputy sheriffs. Or law professors (that last has the loudest elevator conversation, for sure). College towns can indeed be fun. But there is such a thing of having too much fun, and feeling the urge to yelp "Help! Get me out of here!"

Scrolling further down the page, I ran across a new crop of stories on the perennial journalistic favorite, "the real America." Where exactly, I wondered again, is "the real America?" And do I have any part in it?

Let's stipulate, first off, that it probably isn't Amherst MA. Indeed, I used to live in a college town and I'm pretty sure it wasn't there either, probably for the same reasons. Too ingrown, too cosseted, too sleek and comfortable.

I'm relieved, actually, that I moved away from that college town to--um. Well, it's a nice place with a (seemingly) vigorous economy, lots of people on the streets and in the stores and in the parks. But, um, actually another college town. Though in mitigation, your honor, this time the college isn't anywhere dominant a facctor as it was in my previous home (nor as it is, I gather, in Amherst MA).

No; per Wiki, the University (but old-timers still call it "the college") is only the third largest employer around here. Well, hey, that says something for diversity.

Except. Except the first-largest employer here is the medical center and the second is the County government. An FWIW, the fourth largest is the public school district.

You can see where this is going. Palookaville is indeed a thriving, diverse, enjoyable place to live. Except that everything around here seems to be driven, directly, or indirectly, by taxpayer money. County and school district are all public money. The hospital--well, where would a hospital like this be without Medicare? And without the tax-supported insurance bennnies of the public employees.

The University is perhaps a special case. Like all Universities, they've been jacking up prices like crazy over there, and the prospective students are howling. Yet it remains largely public money. And in any event, the employees all count themselves as enjoying the privileges and prerogatives of the public payroll--and don't you forget it.

Still, you have to go all the way to number five on the list before you find a private employer--a (local) bank. And to number eleven before you find a manufacturer--a brewery (and good stuff it is, too, let me assure you). Maybe the brewery ships out; I suspect that even the bank must be regarded, albeit indirectly, as the beneficiary of a public payroll.

Does this count as "the real America?" --a functioning polity, held together by tax dollars? For perspective, I might compare it to some other towns, not at all far away, but with nothing like the same taxpayer base. I'm thinking of one in particular that I drive through once a week. You get some drift of its character from the billboards. There's a huge matched set of before-and-after methamphetamines pictures. There's a wall of big type urging me not to abort the baby, but to give it up for adoption. And another one warning that messing with 12-year-olds is a felony.

I lead a sheltered life; I really don't know a lot about these neighboring towns. Well: I've sat on jury panels a few times (never get chosen, I wonder why). I can tell that these smaller towns have a whole lot of hurt. And that without a big government employer (or equivalent), you're pretty much toast.

Back to Amherst MA, and I realize story doesn't quite mortice at the joints. I assume Amherst is not a giant meth lab. On the other hand, I am not clear that the public payroll looms quite so large there as it does in Palookaville. Best I can tell, the largest employer is UMass, which is a public entity, although I gather the economy as a whole may be more complex and diverse.

Still, I think the general principle may apply. If you've got access to dollars, if you have friends in high places, if you are plugged in, you can have a pretty comfortable life. If not, you'd better have a meth lab or you may have nothing at all.

Pesto

Brian brought us the cuttings from a half row of basil. We stumped up for oil and garlic and pine nuts--a kind of a sharecropper thing. Mrs. B turned the kitchen into a pesto factory. It's all in the freezer now, in little muffin tins. The whole house smells of perfume.

Mmmm, pesto.

Who Saw It Coming?

Michael J. Panzer offers up a list of market watchers who were not just delusional bonehead optimists in the runup (and who are not today) (link)--and do not miss the interesting add-ons in the comments. A thorough read of Fool's Gold by GillianTett will offer up a few more. All of which raises an interesting and I think not-obvious point. Specifically--when we speak of people who "saw it coming," we tend to make it sound like they were isolated voices crying in the wilderness. Okay, granted, they weren't running major banks (although JP Morgan Chase seems to have pulled itself through fairly well). But in fact, they were not isolated; in fact there were quite a lot of informed, intelligent, non-crazy observers (or participant) observers who "saw it coming" and said so. Fat lot of good it did them, except maybe they constructed their own portfolios accordingly.

Sunday, July 05, 2009

Posthumous Drug Use?

"Celebrities and fans pay tribute to Michael Jackson amid concerns over the singer's use of pain medication following his sudden death."
BBC. outed in Quinion.

Opera: The Salzburg Figaro

Courtesy of Netflix, we just caught up with the much-noted "dark Figaro"(link), from Salzburg in 2006. That would be the Claus Guth production with the comedy drilled out--ponderous tempi, portentous presentation, and angst. We give it a split verdict: Mrs. B thought it was pretty good. I'd say it was worth watching and even worth trying, but at the end of the day, it's a good argument for a traditional staging.

It certainly has its strong points. It was gloriously sung by a cast so ensemble that you almost forgot to notice that they had the star power of Anna Netrebko on board (as Susanna). As a conductor, Harnoncourt is characteristically unsubtle, but he seems to be going in the right direction most of the time. And the darkness is certainly in the script.

But the point of the Mozart da Ponte operas is not just the darkness: it is the darkness-cum-light--as someone said, "a tragedy wrapped in a comedy." It works best when you start with the smooth romance (Cosi) or the high-spirited good fun (Figaro) and then recognize with a jolt: hey, this is a serious business--something awful is going on here. Attention must be paid. This is one reason why Don Giovanni, for all its incomparable virtues, never works quite as well for me: the balance isn't quite right, the nastiness tends to outweigh the fun. The doubleness, in short, is the point.

And you miss that when (as here) you scrub out all the comedy. Granted, you gain something: you get to scrutinize the dark side; you explore it with more attention and care than you'll ever get a chance to in a more standard model. But in the end it is more one-dimensional and so ironically, less convincing.

I'm not saying it's not worth trying: I'm not the kind of traditionalist who wants them to play the same thing in the same way every night, like the D'Oyly Carte Gilbert & Sullivan, or the Preservation Hall Dixieland Band. There's a lot to be enjoyed in a performance like this, and a lot to be learned from it. One of the things you learn his how extraordinarly right Mozart (and da Ponte) got it in the first place.

On What Nature Abhors

Tyler talks about ideas "in an intellectual vacuum" and then "explains:"

Imagine handing Road to Serfdom to a thirteen-year-old.

Um, no, I guess I can't quite imagine it, though I imagine it has been done--my guess is that the donor is a dentist who pilots his own plane. But it does recall a time a few years back when I gave a copy of Animal Farm as a bar mitzvah present. Later I asked papas--did he read the book? Did he like it?

"Yeh," said papa, "he thought it was about pigs."

My mind wanders: the book I read at that age with avidity and who-knows-how-much comprehension was P.C. Wren, Beau Geste. Wiki suggests there are half a dozen film versions and even more parodies--and a bibliography reference under "Children's Literature." Who knows, maybe Hayek's time will come.

Saturday, July 04, 2009

Jimmy? Elvis? You Here?

Here are two names that probably never appeared in the same sentence together before:

For those with unblemished credit histories, the [mortgage] rates resembled those our parents and grandparents talked about, much as they recounted hearing Elvis Presley or Jimmy Dorsey for the first time.
So Mark Zandi in Financial Shock! Okay, there is a sense in which this can be true (our parents did x and our grandparents did y). But sticklers will point out that Elvis had his first great breakthrough with Heartbreak Hotel in the Spring of 1956, less than a year before Dorsey died. Dorsey, meanwhile, went to the top of the charts with Pennies from Heaven, featuring Bing Crosby, recorded on August 17, 1936, when Presley was 19 months old. It is unlikely anybody used those pennies from heaven to pay off a mortgage on Heartbreak Hotel.

Good book, Financial Shock!, but I'm not sure I'll count on him for pop culture criticism.

Abdications

Selected famous abdications:

  • Edward VIII of the United Kingdom, on 11 Dcember 1936 to be with "the woman I love"--horrifying the woman who understood that henceforth she would have to be his solace and companion.
  • Nicholas II of Russia on 15 March, 1917, under strong encouragement from the revolutionaries. They shot him the following summer.
  • Queen Christiana of Sweden, abdicated 3 June 1654, avowedly to practice her hitherto concealed Catholicism, but perhaps to enjoy the Good Life in a warmer climate.
  • Diocletian, Roman Emperor, on 1 May 305 (AD), worn out and wasting. Later when they asked him to come back, he said "they wouldn't say that if they could see my cabbages."
Wiki has a fuller catalog here.

Liveblogging Napoleon's Russian Invasion:
Napoleon's Dismay at Vilna

According to his companion-in-arms General Armand de Caulaincourt, Napoleon was more than a little displeased with the unwillingness of the Russians to accept battle at Vilna:

The Emperor had definite information of the retreating movement of the enemy. He ws amazed that they had yielded Wilna without a struggle, and had taken their decision in time to escape him.

It was truly heart-breaking for him to have to give up all hope of a great battle before Wilna. . . . His first question to any officer coming to headquarters from the various army corps was, "How many prisoners have been taken?" He was anxious for trophies, so as to encourage the Poles. And no one sent him any. . . . .

The Emperor decided to summon M. Balachof to Wilna. ... The Emperor Napoleon said:

"My brother Alexander [i.e., the Tsar], who showed himself so haughty with Narbonne, already wants a settlement. He is afraid. My maneuvers have disconcerted the Russians; before a month is over they will be on their knees to me."

M. Balachof brought a letter from the Tsar Alexander, and also instructions in keeping with its contents, to demand the reasons for the invasion in peacetime and without any declaration of war. He was also to propose, in the absence of any known grievance caused by misunderstanding between the two States, to exchange explanations and to avoid war if the Emperor Napoleon would retire to his positions behind the Niemen, pending negotiations. ... [I]n the presence of the Prince of Neuchatel, the Duke of Istria, myself, and I think, Duroc, the Emperor Napoleon said in a loud voice:

"Alexander is laughing at me. Does he imagine tht I have come to Wilna to discuss trade treaties. I have come to finish off, once and for all, the Collosus of Northern Barbarism. The sword is drawn. They must be thrust back into their snow and ice, so that for a quarter of a century at least they will not be able to interfere with civilized Europe."
--Armand de Caulaincourt, With Napoleon in Russia 50-52
(William Morrow, New York, 1935)

Friday, July 03, 2009

Semi-Appreciation: The Myth of the Rational Market

Justin Fox says his new book, "The Myth of the Rational Market" "is a work of journalism." He's right on that, and in this case, it is nothing to brag about. He's put together a highly entertaining collage of anecdote and apt quotation (there, thought ought to make a nice jacket blurb). But if you are looking to get your hands on the history of modern finance, you're going to look someplace else. He may offer the illusion that he is conveying knowledge but there is really no place in this porridge where he offers anything into which you can sink your teeth.

Start with the title: "The Myth of the Rational Market." Nowhere does he specify what he means by "rational" or "market" or "rational market" (nor, for that matter, "myth"--a word he quits using after the first chapter). At times he seems to be trying to build his story around the "Efficient Capital Market Hypothesis"--, ECMH, Eugene Fama's proposal (since rejected by Fama) that securities prices impound information that might affect securities prices. But from the get-go Fox seems to be treating "efficient" as synonymous with "rational." It isn't clear whether he sees no distinction, or figures that the reader will not see a distinction and so it's not worth sweating.

Either way, it is pretty clear that he wants to extend the definition far beyond the realm of securities prices; he seems to extend it at times to the behavior of all markets; to the principles of social organization in general; to the motivational scheme of politicians; to classic economic modelling; to modern macro theory, and perhaps to other realms that I haven't kept track of.

All these cannot possibly belong in the same bin. As an example, he seems to associate ECMH with the anti-state pro-market bias we associate with "Chicago School" economics. As an empirical matter, his own evidence defeats him. He points out that Fama himself is almost perversely apolitical and that other major players (e.g., Franco Modigliani) were avowedly leftish. Beyond that, the association seems untenable on its own terms: there is absolutely nothing about ECMH that requires or presupposes any particular form of state-market relationship (unless the mere existence of a market is thought somehow to be a political choice).

Beyond: the arguments in favor of the superiority of the marketplace over the state--some of those arguments are empirical ("markets work better"); and some are unreservedly moral ("markets are right"). But ECMH offers no parallel. Except insofar as it may seem to privilege the exercise of individual critical judgment, I should say that ECMH has absolutely no moral content whatever. It's just an observation, true or not true as the facts me dictate.

Beyond ECMH per se, Fox does canvass a broad range of material from critics or challengers of ECMH, although his presentation is not well organized. He needs to sort out, for example (a) structural distortions, like agent misbehavior, that serve the agent while disserving efficiency; from (b) "human limitations" as we see in Tversky and Thaler; and from (c) the analysis of bubbles, as in the work of Shiller or Minsky (indeed, Minsky seems to have been slapped on as an afterthought--perhaps Fox, like so many finance academics, had not really noticed him until the current uproar began).

But then for some reason he feels he has to go on and try to tackle virtually every other topic in modern finance theory (diversification pricing, beta; also rational expectations, public choice, valuation theory and a whole lot more). And not just to tackle them; to maintain the pretense that they all assimilate to a single intelligible theme. No, actually it may be they all assimilate to a single theme, but Fox has not shown that he has found it. And there is an ironic side-problem: by trying to attend to so many issues, he ends up giving short shrift to the one issue--option pricing theory--that may be more important than all others, including ECMH itself.

The result, then, reads like a career's worth of reporting notes, readable in themselves but far too diverse and scattered to offer much real insight. Fox said that it's journalism and I said it shows. But that is uncharitable. A lot of really helpful and instructive analysis begins as journalism. This book begins as journalism and pretty much stays where it is.

Designated Kickee

For a blog that doesn't really like to think of itself as all that political, Underbelly has devoted an inordinate amount of ink over the last 10 months to the soon-to-be ex governor of Alaska. And before anybody reminds me, I was quick off the mark with the suggestion that she wouldn't make it to election day.

Well, so I was off by 10 months. So sue me. But do remember this guy:

You won't have Nixon to kick around any more, because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference and it will be one in which I have welcomed the opportunity to test wits with you.
For those of you too young to remember: that is November 7, 1962, i.e., six years almost to the day before his election to the Presidency.

Note: I was unable to find an audio clip. Any help on this one?

Update: Here it is! Bruce rescues Buce with two choices--link; or link.

Update to update: Adam Nagourney demolishes the Nixon analogy.

Afterthought: Here's a wrinkle: she didn't resign. She only promised she would resign, a couple of weeks from now. What are the chances of a change of mind? The more I hear of it, the more I think it was an impulse move that she will come to regret.

After-afterthought: By sheer coincidence, I just last night caught Frost/Nixon. Gripping; Frank Langella certainly has changed since Twelve Chairs. And there should be an Academy Award for artificial noses.

Arnold the Populist?

I certainly agree with Politico in saying that California is a mess, but where, exactly, do they come off saying that Arnold "swept into office on a wave of populist fervor"? Arnold was in fact a perfectly credible candidate and by any reasonable standard, a centrist. Stuck between sclerotic Democrats and batshit loony Republicans, a centrist wouldn't normally stand a chance, but Arnold took his opportunity when the recall election allowed him to sidestep the party apparatus. If you define a "populist" as "anyone who esacapes the party apparatus," then I guess we have to find him guilty. But I'd say his dynamic looks less like Sarah Palin (say) than it does Michael Bloomberg, who propelled himself into the New York mayoralty by a very similar finesse.

Quote of the Day Week Whatever

God killed Michael Jackson to save your ass
-- and you gave another interview?!?

--Jon Stewart to Mark Sanford

HT TPM (with cute headline).

Thursday, July 02, 2009

Please Tell Me This Isn't True

Job insecurities

SIR – Lexington tried to find some reassurances for blue-collar workers, who are dropping out of the affluent middle class in large numbers (June 6th). He concluded that “there is still hope for blue-collar workers…willing to learn from the calamity that is General Motors”. However, even rueful and sobered workers cannot create jobs: that is mainly the function of investors, who usually want to cut wages and benefits. In the longer run virtually all manufacturing faces an equalisation of factor prices due to the globalisation of trade, a process that will keep pushing American prices and wages well below our current middle-class levels.

Edwin Reubens
Emeritus professor of economics
City University of New York
Weston, Florida
Letter to the Editor of The Economist, June 27, 2009.

Bring Me the Blog of Dan Froomkin

Look, I know this is comic book silly, but no sillier than the whole episode. Now that we know that the Washington Post was willing to sell its good name for a crappy 25k, is there any chance we have insight into the real reason behind the (otherwise bafflingly stupid) Dan Froomkin firing? I mean, could it be that some ill-wisher said he'd drop a quarter of a big one in the till if Dan would just go? And the publisher said yessiree bop? Might be fun to see the rest of the price list here. How much are they asking for Krauthammer?

Meanwhile, somebody needs to tell Katharine Weymouth that there's a difference between doing it for a few friends and doing it for money.

Wednesday, July 01, 2009

Modest Proposal

Idle thought re the previous post. Assuming it is really necessary that (California) legislators and professors get cash while "people in mental health treatment" must take IOUs, what are the objections to a proposal that the favored classes take IOUs at least for that portion of their compensation that exceeds (50k? 100k? 250k?--pick as number). Or failing that, could we just reclassify them all as "people in mental health treatment?"

Update: My friend Cappy points out that to fail to pay wages might lead to treble damage liability under the Fair Labor Standards Act. He might of added: and misdemeanor penalties against anybody near the pay box. Details, details.

Ouch...

Touche...

Pocketa Pocketa Pocketa...

At first blush, you might think that this was the coolest in the world to prevent employees from pocketing bribes: ban pockets. On second thought, this may not be as helpful as it appears at first thought. I.e., wasn't in Jack Kennedy who was notorious for wearing suits with no pockets, so he could never be impelled to pick up a tab.

And as I recall, the President of Kazakhstan used to boast about the fact that he wore suits with no pockets. Didn't stop him from becoming one of the world's richest men.

Geeky Aside: Which brings me to the ancient principle that "there are no pockets in a shroud." I think this is often taken as equivalent to "you can't take it with you." But couldn't it just as well mean that if you kill them, you don't need to bribe them?

Ageing: The Future Lies Ahead

The Economist this week has a special section on ageing, heavy with factoids you kinda sorta maybe knew, but well assembled and presented. It opens, however, on a note of questionable confidence:

This is a slow-moving but relentless development that in time will have vast economic, social and political consequences. ...And there is no escape: barring huge natural or man-made disasters, demographic changes are much more certain than other long-term predictions (for example, of climate change). Every one of the 2 billion people who will be over 60 in 2050 has already been born.
I guess I'd have to concede the narrow point, about the 2 billion having already been born. But the general tone of confidence strikes me as unwarranted. The fact is that in this as in any other human endeavor, we know next to nothing about what the future may hold. As the survey implicitly concedes, we have no idea how exactly societies will deal with the politics of pension funds or, correspondingly of the nature of the work force. Among topics barely mentioned in the survey, we can only guess what we will see in the future by way of population movements or birth rates.

I grant that the comparison is not exact, but does anyone remember the hand-wringing in the 50s about the "inevitable" Asian population bomb, coupled with the suffering and privation that would necessarily ensue. Sure, in retrospect it is easy enough to see where our guesses went wrong--easy enough, even, to think of plausible reasons why they went wrong. The point is that the obvious is often obvious only in retrospect. In my saner moods I remind myself that I haven't any idea what the future may look like--and tht that is about the only thing about which I can be sure.

Liveblogging Napoleon's Russian Invasion:
Advancing on Vilna

Napoleon's Army presses its advance on Vilna, with high hopes of a major engagement. Napoleon discovers to his dismay that the Russian army is surprisingly hard to catch:

A few enemy patrols we encountered on our way made off speedily without risking an engagement. On the evening of [June] 26th there were many more of them but they, too, melted away when we prepared to attack them. On the 27th the whole army regrouped for a battle with the Russian main force at Vilna, but the Russians merely set fire to the city's warehouses, destroyed the bridge across the Vilna river and allowed the Grand Army to enter the place practically unopposed on the 29th. The Grand Army now pressed on with all possible speed along two roads to catch up with the elusive Russians, who were retiring towards Dunsberg. ....every day the enemy's light horse seemed on the point of making a stand and did, in fact, engage us in occasional skirmishes. Losses on both sides were negligible, but the Russians achieved their aim of slowing our advance.

--Lt. H.A. Vossler, With Napoleon in Russia 1812, 46 (Folio ed. 1998)

Krugman v. Taylor

I'm still new enough at this internet thingy that I still think free video-on-demand is a marvel. Anyway, I was delighted to be able to go back and pick up the "debate" (if you can call it that) between Paul Krugman and John B. Taylor over health care and the deficit. For your convenience, see link infra.

..but I have to say I thought it a disappointment. Here we have two of the most highly regarded economists, orchestrated by one of the most discriminating of TV hosts (Fareed Zakaria) and this is the best they can do? Oh dear... Maybe there just wasn't enough time. My screen says it ran for 16 minutes, which is an eon in TV-talk, but not very much for a decent debate. Or maybe the debate format itself is inadequate, unless you are Lincoln and Douglas. But they barely joined issue. Are the deficits inflationary? Taylor (who, I must say, never seems to have had this problem with Bush deficits) said oh no doubt about it. Krugman seemed to try to make a few points as to why they are not, but got distracted, or distracted himself. Is government health care bound to be inefficient. Krugman said no, look at Medicare. Taylor said Medicare is different, but never got around to explaining how. Both of these are central issues--and issues where, I suspecct, there are at least coherent arguments on each side. I don't doubt for a moment that these guys are on top of their brief, but that is the point: if they can't get a handle on the format, I doubt that anyone can.