Tuesday, April 17, 2007

More on Open Courseware and a Medical Fun Fact

Following up on my last post re open courseware, I went Googling and found this site, hitherto unknown to me, which goes straight to my Google Reader. I also found the following fun fact, perhaps peripherally relevant, but mainly curious & interesting (link) …

A New York Times story here today about the emergency treatment received by New Jersey Governor John Corzine reminded me of reactions my father and brother shared with me about the care Governor Wallace and President Reagan received in emergency rooms. Dad was an orthopaedic surgeon. He thought there was a good chance Governor Wallace would have not become a paraplegic if there had not been a “celebrity delay” before the doctors got underway to treat his spine. My brother, a with extensive family practice emergency room service, said it was President Reagan’s enormous good fortune to have his gunshot wounds treated in an emergency room used to a high volume of crime related trauma. My brother thought an orderly who spotted signs of internal bleeding and rushed Reagan into treatment—reacting to the wound instead of the identity of the patient—may have saved the President’s life.

The Bloginar

Earlier I linked to some fascinating posts about Supply Side Economics from people some of whom were present at the creation and others of whom simply knew what they were talking about. Bruce Bartlett, Mr. SSE himself, brings the matter full circle with a bit of metablogging here--linked, naturally enough, at Economist's View, the site that got the ball rolling and has pretty much established itself as the go-to source for up-market econ discussion (link).

Here's another example: Martin Wolfe presides over his own seminar at Economist's Forum here. As Mark Thoma points out, prominent economists often weigh in at Wolfe's site with comments of their own.

Of course, if you are a little shaky on the whole idea of supply side, you could pop on over and select any of half or dozen so relevant courses at MIT Open Courseware here.

[Aside: Wonder how that bit is going, anyway. I admit, I often go there browsing and say to myself, "hm, I ought to learn more about that..." Yeh, right. How many people, I wonder, actually work their way through an MIT course in any systematic way? And who are they?]

Christian Abstinence

Elbowing my way into a free table at the student dining hall today, I found myself next to a dazzling young twosome, totally entranced with each other. She was drop-dead beautiful, vaguely Asian--Pilipino? He was plain vanilla, if you can ignore the earring. It didn't take long to figure out that they were Christians, and happy to talk about it (to each other; I remained invisible throughout). When did you become a... No, my father is not a... My first boyfriend was a ... . And so forth. In time the talk turned to abstinence, or perhaps I should say "Christian abstinence," because the coupling (pardon) seemed to come naturally. They seemed to be in favor of abstinence, but it certainly commanded their attention. As I tucked away my book and prepared to leave, they were tackling the subtopic of erectile dysfynction. It seemed to make them really hot.

I have lived long, I have seen much.

Why So Many Regents Grads?

The Wichita bureau weighs in with a useful insight on the assertion that 150 grads of Pat Robertson U are at work in the US Government: they'd work cheap. And long hours. For the cause.

Did I mention my skepticism that there are really 150? I did? Okay, I say it again. We're talking about a source here not meticulous about the truth, and with a natural motive to hype. Maybe more than 15, though.

VT Links

There's a good collection of VT stuff at this (unlikely?) source (link and link). Here's another useful comment (link). Entirely snark free, both.

Update: They score again (link). I won't even bother update again, just go to their blog and keep looking.

Infinity is Funny

Infinity is funny.

I was driving through the parking kiosk with David. The sign said “Parking 0-30 minutes, $5.” David said: imagine that, they charge you $5 even if you don’t park here at all.

Fran Lebowitz says: I figure I have as much chance of winning the lottery if I don’t enter as if I do.

An expert is a guy who knows more and more about less and less until he knows everything about nothing.

Infinity is funny.

Monday, April 16, 2007

I Think I've Read Three of These

So far as I can tell, I have read three of these. And Da Vinci Code is not one of them.

Followup: Okay, let me see. Angela's Ashes (kids gave me to it for Christmas--good fun). Unbearable Lightness of Being (loved it. And FWIW, the film version is on of the best up-market blue movies ever made--my, the things you can do with a bowler hat). Love in a Time of Cholera: (iked it, but I like other Garcia Marquez better).

I have enjoyed other stuff by authors on the list: Cormac McCarthy's Suttree. Anthony Beevor (with Artemis Cooper), Paris after the Liberation. The Iain Pears mystery novels. I started Donna Tartt, Secret History, but when I read that the beginning Greek students were reading Aeschylus, I knew she couldn't be trusted. I may have read Hawksmoor. I read something by Peter Ackroyd that was sufficiently weird that I can't remember what it was.

Swim!

Turcopolier joins the list of those who is amused by Google’s instructions on going from New York to London (swim!), The bit has been floating around for at least the last few days now, but nobody to my knowledge has answered the three basic questions:

  1. Why is it there? Is this the work of a mischief-making infant that somehow slipped under the radar? Or do we have a company policy of harmless merriment?

  2. Why do they keep sending us to France?

  3. Why can't they find Istanbul?

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Must Read: Subprimes Again

Okay, I concede I am just indulging my unwholesome fascination with the subprime meltdown, but I thought this was pretty shrewd.

Duke of Wellington: One for the Kiddies

Talking of the Duke of Wellington yesterday (link) made remember another favorite Wellington anecdote—this from Rebecca West’s The Fountain Overflows, one of the truly great neglected classics of British fiction:

Rosamund…went back to the drawings Richard Quin was showing her. These were quite good, especially the ones of the ghost of Napoleon laughing at the Duke of Wellington, when the mob broke the windows on the anniversary of Waterloo, because he wanted them not to have votes. It was funny, Richard Quin was old enough to hve understood most of what Papa told us about the Duke of Wellington, but he was so excited about gasometers that he had drawn one in the window of the room in which Napoleon’s ghost was appearing.

“It must have happened,” said Richard Quin. “It was so natural for it to happen. Napoleon’s ghost must have felt like that, it must have happened, I wonder if anybody else knows about it.”

--Rebecca West, The Fountain Overflows 176 (NYRB Classic 2003)

From other evidence, I gather that Richard Quin is, oh, maybe seven years old. Query, did other British seven-year-olds draw pictures of Wellington on his deathbed? Do they now? Do American children draw pictures of, oh, maybe the 1968 Chicago Democratic convention, with Barry Goldwater’s shadow chuckling in the background?

[It’s a wonderful novel, though, of which I hope to say more later. Not too long on plot but some of the best characterization anywhere. Including Richard Quin.]

Johnson v. Delay

Last week I laid on a bit of snark about Lyndon Johnson and Tom Delay (link). Underbelly’s Alabama bureau, drawing on long experience ‘tweendecks in Washington, weighs in:

Seems to me comparing Delay with LBJ doesn’t work because one was using presidential power while the other was using house position power. Different powers. If the comparison was to LBJ as Senate leader and Delay as House leader I'm sure there are comparisons. But LBJ was noted for bringing in everyone he could to work a deal -- civil rights legislation, for instance -- and Delay's tactic was to freeze the Dems out -- out of conferences when final versions are written, for instance. … Delay gloated when he cut a fellow Republican’s nuts, LBJ didn’t get pleasure out of damaging a Democrat.

Saturday, April 14, 2007

One More on Trees

One more on trees (cf. link). Ah, yes, here it is. I thought it was Sir John Mandeville, but no:

Near the City of Ormuz … In summer they by reason of the heat betake themselves to their garden houses built on walls. And from nine till noon there blowes a winde with such extreme heat from the sand, that it swallowes up a man’s breath and stifleth him, which makes them lie in the water.

There is a great Plaine in which a great tree growth, called the Tree of the Sun, which the Christians call the Dry Tree. This tree is very great and thicke, and hath leaves, which on the one side are white, and on the other side greene. It produces prickles shales like those of a Chesnut, but nothing in them. The wood is solide and strong, yellow like a Boxe. There is no tree within on hundred miles, except on one side, on which are trees within ten miles. In this place, the inhabitants say Alexander the Great fought Darius. ... .

--Marco Polo, Purchases’ Pilgrimes (1625 edition)

Stupid Pet Jokes

Yes, I think this is funny:
Penguin goes into a bar and says "have you seen my father?" "Don't know," says the bartender, "what does he look like?"

-{Ka-foosh, bam!}

"On the Contrary, Madam..."

One of the last things I still read on paper is the The “Quote…Unquote” Newsletter,” edited by Nigel Rees, who hosts the estimable BBC radio show of the same name. Where else could I expect to learn what the Duke of Wellington meant when he ended discussion by saying “Damn it man! The rat is in the bottle!” Rees finds the answer in a footnote to a diary—the diary kept by the artist Benjamin Robert Haydon, commissioned to paint a portrait of the great man:

This not very intelligible expression may refer to an anecdote I have heard of the Duke’s once telling in his later days how the musk rats in India got into bottles, which ever after retained the odour of musk. “Either the rats must be very small,” said a lady, who heard him, “or the bottles very large.” “On the contrary, madam,” was the Duke’s reply, “very small bottles, very large rats.” “That is the style of logic we have to deal with at the War Office,” whispered Lord----“

Brings to mind my favorite Wellington one-liner, which I quote from memory. A proper lady encountered Wellingon the company of a female (sic?) not his wife:

--My Lord the Duke, I am surprised!

--On the contrary, madam, I am surprised. You are astonished.

For more on Rees’ newsletter, including a subscription blank, go here.

Must Read of the Day

Here's my must read for the morning: State Department can't even find the outfit where Wolfie's sweetie works (and which costs us $35 million). Maybe we could offer a bounty.

Update: The link refers to the girlfriend's org as the "Foundation for the Future." I don't have time to pursue this, but when you go to the Website of the "Foundation for the Future," you come to an outfit that seems to be entirely different.

Faulkner at his Best: Shade Tree Justice

Michael Gilleland has a characteristically elegant and graceful post up under the title of “Under the Greenwood Tree,” where he calls together an array of classical texts on the theme of, well, of sitting under a tree.

It’s a genre almost impossible to contain and he was wise to limit himself to a few classical examples. Eve ate from the tree of knowledge; we flourish like the green bay tree; “Even as are the generations of leaves such are those likewise of men;” (Homer, Iliad: Lang, Leaf and Myers trans.); and I got my ’65 Mustang rebuilt by a “shade tree mechanic.”

Michael (quoting) recalls the Guatama dispensing wisdom from under a Bo Tree. One of my favorites in the genre may be a riff on the Guatama. It is the scene in William Faulkner’s novel The Hamlet, where the Justice of the Peace presides—or attempts to preside—over law-as-theatre in Yoknapatapaw County. Faulkner’s stock seems to be down these days, and The Hamlet has never quite made it into the first tier among academic Faulknerians—not as freighted with meaning as Absalom, Abasalom! not as abstruse as Sound and the Fury, not as grotesque as As I Lay Dying. But as an exemplar of unsullied pastoral comedy, it has no equal (you get some of the same flavor from the sheep-shearing in Shakespeare’s Winter’s Tale, but the comparison only goes so far):

[T]he wagons, the buggies and the saddled horses and mules … moved out of the village on that May Saturday morning, to converge upon Whiteleaf store eight miles away, coming not only from Frenchman’s Bend but from other directions too… . So by the time the Frenchman’s Bend people began to arrive, there were two dozen wagons, the teams reversed and eased of harness and tied to the rear wheels in order to pass the day, and twice that many saddled animals already standing about the locust grove beside the store and the site of the hearing had already been transferred from the store to an adjacent shed where in the fall cotton would be stored. But by nine oclock it was seen that even the shed would not hold them all, so the palladium was moved again, from the shed to the grove itself. The horses and mules and wagons were cleared from it; the single chair, the gnawed table bearing a thick bible which had the appearance of loving and constant use of a piece of old and perfectly-kept machinery and an almanac and a copy of Mississippi Reports dated 1881 and bearing along its opening edge as single thread-thin line of soilure as if during all the time of his possession its owner (or user) had opened it at only one page though that quite often, were fetched from the shed to the grove; a wagon and four men were dispatched and returned presently from the church a mile away with four wooden pews for the litigants and their clansmen and witnesses; behind these in turn the spectators stood—the men, the women, the children, sober, attentive, and neat. Not in their Sunday clothes to be sure, but in the clean working garments donned that morning for the Saturday’s diversion of sitting about the country store or trips into the county seat, and in which they would return to the field on Monday morning and would wear all that week until Friday night came round again. The Justice of the Peace was a neat, small, plump old man resembling a tender caricature of all grandfathers who ever breathed, iin a beautifully laundered though collarless white shirt with immaculate starch-gleaming cuffs and bosom, and steel-framed spectacles and neat, faintly curling hair. He sat looking at them…

--William Faulkner, The Hamlet 356-7
(Vintage International ed. 1991)

For my money, this is pure Faulkner, mesmerizing, but stopping just a gnat’s crotchet short of self-parody. The whole story combines lyric charm with falling-down comedy—funny enough, I think, to rank with the very best of Mark Twain and, of course, the very best of Faulkner himself.

Friday, April 13, 2007

Annals of Apology--Duke Prosecutor Dept.

"To the extent that I judgments that ultimately proved to be incorect, I apologize to the three students who were wrongly accused."

--Utterly Discredited and Bound-for-Disbarment Mike Nifong,
Temporary District Attorney of Durham County NC
And Proprietor of the "Duke Rape" Fantasy

To the extent that I relied on shameless and gall to carry me through a brazen abuse of prosecutorial power, I don't apologize one bit.

Hoisted from the Comments: TigerHawk on the 50s

TigerHawk, offering a comment on my Bill Bradley post, recalls a rule of political thumb:

"Republicans want to go home in the 1950s, and Democrats want to work there."

Within the limits of the genre, that strikes me as fair comment. The 50s were the one decade in human history when someone as dumb as Homer Simpson could support three kids in a detached home with garage. And it worked through a grand conspiracy in restraint of trade: closed markets allowed managers and labor to capture and divvy out economic rents, while we all drove crap cars.

But then it gets more complicated. Seems to me one reason for the Goldwater Revolution of the 60s was southern/western resentment against the Northeastern Establishmen t, and in particular, against unresponsive capital markets and the high costs of imports. Establishment candidates like Nelson Rockefeller and Bill Scranton were happy to play along with the dirigiste consensus. How it must have blown Goldwater’s gasket to see Henry Ford and Walter Reuther on the podium together in opposition against him.

"Fell down all fower"--Woops!

Oops; earlier I recalled that Lord Coke made King James so angry that he “fell down on all fower,” but I couldn’t find the source. Once again, my friend Carlton comes to the rescue—sort of. Turns out it was Coke who fell down, not the King. And the phrase is “fell flat on all fower.” Apparently the King was pretty chuffed, though:

After which [i.e. after Coke C.J.’s remonstrance] his majestie fell into that high indignation as the like was never knowne in him, looking and speaking fiercely with bended fist, offering to strike him etc. which the Lord Coke perceiving fell flat on all fower; humbly beseeching his majestie to take compassion on him and to pardon him, if he thought zeale had gone beyond his duty and allegience. His Majesty not herewith contented, continued his indignation. Whereupon the Lord Treasurer, the Lord Cookes unckle by marriage, kneeled downe before his Majestie and prayed him to be favorable.

--As quoted in R.G. Usher, James I and Sir Edward Coke,
18 Eng. Hist. Rev. 664, 669 (1903), reprinted in
William E. Conklin, In Defence of Fundamental Rights at 47 (1979) (Google book link)

Looks like it was I who fell down on this one, and here's hoping Speaker Pelosi stays upright.

Supply Side as Fantasy

I’m no economist, but I have long suspected that supply-side had a lot more to do with political marketing hype than it did with true economics. Comes now Paul Krugman (and Brad DeLong) weighing in with a more explicit articulation of the point (link). Part of what seems to be a burgeoning on-line discussion of the nature of supply-side, kicked off by the estimable Mark Thoma (link).

I’ve always been particularly irritated by the legendary Laffer Curve. I mean—of course it is true that “too much” taxing reduces revenue; the question is “how much.” And to draw a curve and find a limit, applying the methods of first-semester calculus—why, from 1870 to 1950, economists did almost nothing else. Laffer has about as much to do with the invention of supply-side as Abner Doubleday has to do with the invention of baseball (remarkably, one person who seems to agree with me on this is Laffer himself—see the Wiki article supra; he attributes it to, inter alia, John Maynard Keynes).

A somewhat more charitable view of supply-side comes from Greg Mankiw (link), who dredges up what may be the money quote (from Herb Stein): “"There is nothing wrong with supply-side economics that division by ten wouldn't fix."

Journalism as Imitation Blogging

This is interesting if you really care that much about Don Imus, but perhaps even more if you don't. That is: Carr seems determined to anticipate and distill every conceivable blob of blogger snark into a single convenient summary. As an imitation of a compendium, it’s pretty good, but if Carr this will save his hide comes the revolution, he’d better think again.

And Speaking of First Principles

When Nancy Pelosi goes to visit the president next week, she might want to haul along a copy of Prohibitions del Roy 12 Coke Rep. 63 (1608), the notes of Sir Edward Coke on a conference with King James I England

Note, upon Sunday the 10th of November, in this same Term[1607--ed.], the King, upon complaint made to him by Bancroft, the Archbishop of Canterbury, concerning Prohibitions, the King was informed, that when the question was made of what matters the Ecclesiastical Judges have Cognizance, … the King himself may decide it in his Royall person; and that the Judges are but the delegates of the King, and that the King may take what Causes he shall please to determine, from the determination of the Judges, and may determine them himself. And the Archbishop said, that this was clear in Divinity, that such Authority belongs to the King by the Word of God in the Scripture. To which it was answered by me, in the presence, and with the clear consent of all the Judges of England, and Barons of the Exchequer, that the King in his own person cannot adjudge any case, either criminall, as Treason, Felony, &c. or betwixt party and party, concerning his Inheritance, Chattels, or Goods, &c. but this ought to be determined and adjudged in some Court of Justice, according to the Law and Custom of England …

Then the King said, that he thought the Law was founded upon reason, and that he and others had reason, as well as the Judges: To which it was answered by me, that true it was, that God had endowed his Majesty with excellent Science, and great endowments of nature; but his Majesty was not learned in the Lawes of his Realm of England, and causes which concern the life, or inheritance, or goods, or fortunes of his Subjects; … And that the Law was the Golden metwand and measure to try the Causes of the subjects; and which protected his Majesty in safety and peace: With which the King was greatly offended, and said, that then he should be under the Law, which was Treason to affirm, as he said; To which I said, that Bracton saith, Quod Rex non debet esse sub homine, sed sub Deo et Lege.

H/T Carlton for the reference. I am still looking for the part where we are told the King got so mad he "fell down on all fower."

Thursday, April 12, 2007

This Just In

Don Imus canceled by MSNBC. Limbaugh, Hannity, O'Reilly, Savage, Coulter to continue as before.

Afterthought: Imus strikes me as a rather nice man, actually. Talk about defining deviancy down...

Update: For a dossier of evidence showing that I am full of it, see this.

Update: CBS caves. Fox stands firm.

Secrets: Ours, and Victoria's

TigerHawk thinks the leftie bloggers are being hypocritical about the White House email backchannel (link). He says:

May the blogger who has never conducted personal business on his work email or discussed work on his personal email -- possibly or even probably in technical violation of his employer's policy -- throw the first snark.

Well now, suppose his employees were discussing a company trade secret--and using their personal email account in a (doomed, misguided) attempt to keep his eyes off them. Would he pass this by with an avuncular chuckle as a "technical violation?"

On the other hand, if it turns out that Karl Rove was using the White House server to order up from Victoria's Secret, I think I'd be willing to give him a bye.

PS to TH and KR: they've got a sheer mesh flyaway babydoll for only $34.95.

Cat Food and Old Age Security

Another bit of policy wonkery inspired our well-wisher in’ Wichita.

That is: retirees who can’t look to secure pension rights may have to fall back on cat food.

But cat food isn’t safe any more.

Couldn’t the Bush administration, determined to abolish social security, at least do something to assure the quality of cat food?

Might be a nice gesture.

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Remembering Bill Bradley

Roasting the Easter lamb on Sunday while CNN droned in the background, I heard former Congressman Jim Leach interviewing former Senator Bill Bradley. I admit I have always felt a bit ambivalent about Bradley. I know he’s a serious guy but he was an awful presidential candidate—he seemed to expect the presidency as a bestowal, one of the worst cases of pompous presumption I’d seen since Arthur Goldberg ran for governor of New York.

But like I say, I concede he is a serious guy. And he said three things that stick in my mind.

One: he said—proudly—that his father, the small-town banker, foreclosed on no mortgages during the Great Depression.

Two: Leach questioned him about Lyndon Johnson and Tom Delay. What, exactly did Delay do that he didn’t learn from Johnson? Well, said Bradley, it wasn’t illegal when Johnson did it.

But the third point was perhaps the most interesting. Bradley recalled the palmy days of the 50s and 60s when people got a raise every year. The modern day equivalent, he remarked, is the home equity loan…

The "E" Word

I suppose it is gratifying to know that Dick Cheney is meeting some blowback in UtahUtah!—and at Brigham Young University—BYU!—and I certainly accept just about everything Carpetbagger had to say on the topic (link). But catch this bit (which CP did quote, although he did not dwell on it):

Several students said, for example, that they were appalled at Mr. Cheney’s use of an expletive on the Senate floor in a June 2004 exchange with Senator Patrick J. Leahy, Democrat of Vermont.

Holy ^&%#ing &*$#! Repeal habeas corpus, check. Pillage the national energy inventory, check. Incinerate the Middle East, check, but tell Pat Leahy to “%$# &*$” (or maybe it was “&^ *&^% $%@&!%$&”!)—ooh, Mr. Vice President, this time you’ve gone too far!

They say that Republicans pull their curtains down, and Democrats don’t, but should. “I thought commencement would be a spiritual, uplifting exercise,” one student said. Speaking as one who skipped all his own commencements, I have to admit that there are real differences in style here. These kids are entitled to a “spiritual, uplifting exercise,” if they want one, and I shouldn’t stand in their way. But, “expletive?” Sheesh.

Afterthought; CP ends by declaring that “Cheney is a mendacious clown with a mean streak and a record of incompetence.” Yes, that too.

Cage Match: Third World Development

I’ve been wanting for a few days to post on the high-saliency dustup between William Easterly and Jeffrey Sachs on first-world aid and third-world development. For the moment, I don’t suppose I can do much better than to link to this excellent post from Economist’s View, with a link back to an earlier post on Easterly (don’t overlook a better-than-average comments thread). Easterly is the proprietor of the shop that says we Never Seem to Get it Right, and Sachs of the one that says We Must Try Harder. Sachs certainly is the flavor du jour—he is presenting the BBC Reith Lectures this month (and next), which is about as near canonization as an American academic can get (link).

I agree with the commentators who say that Easterly is kind of a one-trick pony—his latest book is an awful lot like its predecessor. And that Sachs means well (ouch!). But the shorter Jeffrey Sachs says: okay, we did badly before, but we’ve learned our lesson, we will do better now.

It seems to me this misses the point. The real question is whether there is something about the structure of first-world governments such that they will screw things up not just incidentally, but systematically and predictably and incurably. I wouldn’t want to oversimplify here but—oh heck, let me go ahead and oversimplify. It seems to me the issue here is a lot like the issue with first-world warmaking—not just that we didn’t get it right in (Vietnam, Iraq, whatever) but that the system is so skewed that we can’t get it right. Big bureaucracies have a life and a logic of their own—sooner or later they choke up on their own fluids and suffocate from a kind of institutional edema.

Okay, I do exaggerate. I don’t really believe my own assertion. Or not entirely. But I do think it is a worthy approach to inquiry—whether it is true that institutions suffocate on their own juices and if so, how to avoid it.

M. Gandhi, Meet S. Alinsky

Okay, call me inconsistent. But just as I’ve always nurtured a soft spot for Jeanne Kirkpatrick (link), I cherish fond memories of the late Saul Alinsky. Alinsky was a cheerful and mischievous radical, often as successful as Gandhi in deploying guile and ingenuity to turn power against itself. When Alinsky wanted to tie up a courthouse, for example, he would send his platoons into the public toilets—peaceful and orderly, but absolutely certain to, ahem, disrupt the ordinary life of the institution. Not exactly a sit-in, but close.

In the Alinsky vein, back in the 60s, there were a bunch of Dutch anarchists who succeeded in getting themselves busted for passing out blank leaflets—“blank” being the essence of anarchism because it permitted you to write your own protest. The same bunch undertook to leave all their bicycles unlocked so as to contribute them to the common fund (these days, they would just be stolen by furriners, but let that pass). Anyway, when the city council passed an ordinance forbidding unlocked bikes, the anarchists yielded and put on locks—all configured for the same key (and then they gave away the keys).

And now this: the zero rupee note.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Why We Love New York

Conductor, as rap music blares through speakers: Yo, this is a shout-out to all my niggas keepin' it real on the 1 train. Takin' the 1 to the Bronx at four a.m. -- that's gangsta, son!

--Bronx -bound 1 train
(From Overheard in New York)




Afterthought: Transit conductor--career opportunity for Don Imus?

Broken Army?

Philip Carter of IntelDump is one of the ablest and most informed proponents of the meme that the Army is broken. Here's his latest installment, tapping a piece not otherwise readily available by James Kitfield, author of Prodigal Soldiers (link).

Always the Lady

The one good thing about the Don Imus dustup is that it gives Gwen Ifill a chance to show some class.

I Like Ornery Women

I like ornery women.No surprise, then that I’ve always harbored a soft spot for (the late) Jeanne Kirkpatrick, neocon doyenne and truculent apologist for American overseas adventurism. Her barely-concealed contempt for the rest of the sentient universe was driven at least in part by her conviction that she was probably a whole lot harder-working and better-informed than they were, especially the yapping political jackals who can’t tell Shias from Sunnis. I’ve always believed she meant it when she said she was looking for ways to advance democracy and civil society. Yet I’ve always felt she was a good deal closer to the truth than her caricaturists would have it: of course we consort with dictators, and of course some dictators are better than others. Every administration knows that, even if most try to find some way to gloss it over.

Now here she is in her soon-to-be published posthumous memoir:

Iraq lacked practically all the requirements for a democratic government: rule of law, an elite with a shared commitment to democratic procedures, a sense of citizenship, and habits of trust and cooperation. The administration's failure involved several issues, but the core concern is that they did not seem to have methodically completed the due diligence required for reasoned policy-making because they failed to address the aftermath of the invasion. This, of course, is reflected by the violence, sectarian unrest, ethnic vengeance and bloodshed we see in Iraq today.

[Lifted from Sic Semper Tyrannis (link)]

And this:

Iraq lacked practically all the requirements for a democratic government: rule of law, an elite with a shared commitment to democratic procedures, a sense of citizenship, and habits of trust and cooperation. The administration's failure involved several issues, but the core concern is that they did not seem to have methodically completed the due diligence required for reasoned policy-making because they failed to address the aftermath of the invasion. This, of course, is reflected by the violence, sectarian unrest, ethnic vengeance and bloodshed we see in Iraq today.

[Lifted from David Corn in The Nation (link)]

She’ll get beat up on good and plenty for keeping silent then more than for speaking out now (see links above and link, link; cf. link). Fair enough, but an idea has a truth value independent of the person who embraces it, and it is refreshing to hear her sharp and pointed assessment even now.

Microsoft Deathwatch (Updated)

Paul Graham (who?) says that Microsoft is dead. He doesn't really mean it: he explains that by "dead" he means "increasingly irrelevant," which is to say--well, not dead.

But Graham's piece is still interesting, even to non-geeks as an exercise in business strategizing. Takeaway shot: "Yahoo [was] warped from the start by their fear of Microsoft. That was why they'd positioned themselves as a 'media company' instead of a technology company."

Reminds me of the yarn about how Western Union turned down the rights to the telephone because they didn't realize their business was communications. And Peter Drucker saying that the toughest part of business is figuring out what business you are in. Or something like that. H/T Kottke.

PS: Who is undead? Hint, begins with "G."

This Just In: The director of business development at Microsoft does not agree.

How Sad for You

Lord Curzon on his life as London's most eligible bachelor:
I have never left any woman morally worse than I found her.

--David Gilmour, Curzon 107 (Papermac paperback ed. 1995)

Who Would JP Morgan Invite?--Part II

Earlier, I wondered aloud how the subprime mortgage meltdown would play out; and in particular, whether (or how) anyone could impose a political settlement--who would JP Morgan invite to his yacht (link)?

I've been favored with a thoughtful repsonse from someone who obviously undestands the business. With permission, and with some minor cosmetic editing, I offer these thoughts here. It's a bit of inside baseball, meant for readers who really care about this stuff. But a remarkably large slice of the readership of this blog seems to fit into that cstegory. So here goes:

The loan servicer will be doing the foreclosing; in point of fact, I expect that in CA, for example, the servicer will engage a foreclosure company actually to handle the foreclosures. There should not be recourse to the originating lender; otherwise, from a regulatory standpoint, it would be treated as a loan from the originating lender to the loan purchaser, which defeats the whole purpose of the sale/securitization.

This can be unnecessarily complicated and jargon laden, but to oversimplify, the broker was most likely never the originating lender; the originating lender was likely a mortgage banker (which then pooled the loans and sold them) or, say, Citibank, which the mortgage loan broker or maybe even a mortgage banker brought to the table (which, in turn, pooled the loans and sold them); as noted above, however, the sale was undoubtedly without recourse, and the originating lender is out of the picture.

The more interesting questions for me are more practical: (1) how will the lenders structure their credit bids, (2) what they do with the REO (I know that they will sell it eventually but under what general or specific guidelines (i.e., how long will they hold it, to what will they cut the sales prices, etc.?)), and (3) if the lender is a sold out junior holding a note not protected by Cal. Civ. Code §580b, willl the lender seek to sue the debtor on the note?

There are a bunch corollary questions, such as: can we expect to see judicial foreclosures given what should be the whopping deficiencies (and I think the answer is "no" given the fair value limitations)? That sort of leads to the second set of questions. At least in CA, because of the interplay of the one action rule and the anti-deficiency protections, I think that the lenders pretty much have to suck up the losses, except in the specific case referred to in (3) above. Given the fact that the debt has been securitized and sold on "the street," I don't know that there is a list of people whose arms can be twisted, unless it's the servicers, but their discretion is generally speaking severely limited, and they have to act in accordance with the loan documents and the indenture or other operative document that governs their engagement.

Similarly, I'm not sure I know what segment of the economy really gets hurt because they are holding, to put it mildly, less valuable securities. In other words, I don't think this will be like the S&L meltdown, but I don't know exactly who holds the securities (is it only pension funds?) and, thus, who will feel the pain. What I would expect is pressure from some quarters to stop making loans that aren't exactly predatory but that subject the consumers and the economy at large to undue risks because they can't be collected, result in the driving down of property values, etc. Whether this pressure comes from the government, the industry, or "the street" or all three, is another question.

And a goodbye comment that invites showcasing by itself:

Furthermore, I have to assume that someone has figured out how to profit from this on a large scale and is in the process of doing it, but I also don't know who that is.

Sunday, April 08, 2007

"I Can Recommend Them to Everyone"

Reflecting on the British sailors and there testimonials to their hosts in Iran, I remembered the story about Freud trying to extricate himself from Nazi-dominated Vienna just before World War II. Peter Gay provides particulars:

Just before the authorities let the Freuds go, they insisted he sign a statement that they had not ill-treated him. Freud signed, adding the comment, “I can most highly recommend the Gestapo to everyone”—Ich kann die Gestapo jedermann auf das beste empfehlen.

Gay is puzzled:

It is a curious act inviting some speculation. Freud was lucky the S.S. men reading his commendation did not perceive the heavy sarcasm lurking in it. Nothing would have been more natural than to find his words offensive. Why, then, at the moment of liberation, take such a deadly risk? Was there something at work in Freud making him want to stay, and die, in Vienna? Whatever the deeper reason, his “praise” of the Gestapo was Freud’s last act of defiance on Austrian soil.

--Peter Gay, Freud: A Life For Our Time 628 (Anchor Books ed. 1989)

Fun fact: I can’t document this, but I swear it is true: in one issue of The Economist about 25 years ago, there was an ad for Lufthansa Airlines, bearing the subscript: “I can recommend Lufthansa to everyone--Sigmund Freud.”

Wish I had kept it. Never saw it again. I would love to meet the guy who wrote it, and to ask him how he enjoyed his new career, scraping the gum off the bottom of bus seats.

"Maude, Get the Snaffle!"

I’m back into David Gilmour’s Curzon, which I started last fall and set aside (link). That would be George Nathaniel Curzon (“superior person”), the very model of a high-noon British imperialist. It’s smoothly and gracefully written, and it is full of chilling lessons about the risks and possibilities of empire. It is also, sometimes, simply funny, as in this account of Curzon’s kit list for a trip to Persia:

[A]s Persia had no railway and only two carriageable roads, he would be obliged to travel everywhere on the back of a horse or a mule. Following this experience, he therefore advised later travelers to take, among many other things, two Gladstone bags, an English military swaddle, a snaffle and a two-reined bridle, a Norfolk jacket, towels and a folding indiarubber bath (‘Persians do not wash in our sense of the term’), a revolver, a Cardigan waistcoat and tins of Crosse & Blackwell’s ‘quite excellent’ soup. The most important items, however, were a suit of dress clothes and a large flask which he kept in one of his holsters. Commiserating with a teetotaler who had to ride through Persia, he warned that a traveler would be tempting providence if he did not have some restorative at hand.

--David Gilmour, Curzon 76-7 (Papermac paperback ed. 1995)

“Maude, get the snaffle! We’re off to visit the Shah!”

Oakley Hall on the Thin Crust

My travel book for the last few weeks has been Oakley Hall’s Warlock, lately revived in the uneven-but-still-interesting NYRB Classics series (link). It seems there is a genre of post-modern westerns—Cormac McCarthy is perhaps the most important example; perhaps it extends all the way to Mel Brooks’ Blazing Saddles.

Warlock, published in 1958, is perhaps the first of the line. It arrives with an appreciative introduction from Robert Stone (Who’ll Stop the Rain, the movie version of Stone’s Dog Soldiers, remains one of my favorite movies (link)). It’s a happy choice: it’s hard to think of any other American writer so well equipped to share Hall’s feel for the thin crust of civility that lies atop the bubbling social stew.

Warlock has indisputable virtues. Hall has a fine sense of incident; I can’t remember anyone who describes hand-to-hand conflict more convincingly. He has a great ear for dialog—probably more art than life, but you want it to be real:

“Shut up!” Carl yelled. “You don’t know what assault and battery is yet, and by God I want witness to what I am saying. Because that’s the word with the bark on it---if you have got him turned against us here with your law’s-the-law bellywash, I swear to God people will walk ten miles out of their way around what happened to you, so as not to see the mess!”

Oakley Hall, Warlock 151-2 (NYRB Classics ed. 2006)

As a novel, at the end of the day I’d say it doesn’t quite work. It’s a bit too studied or mannered; it smells a bit too much of the seminar room, where Hall spent most of his professional career.

The way it works better, perhaps, is as political theory. If there’s too much message here for the good of art, still Hall puts his message well. Clearly, he wants to show—and does show—just how unpleasant the frontier could be: how desperate and marginal, how peopled with men (sic—not many women) clinging together in a kind of desperate animosity, almost completely devoid of resources wherewith to build a good society. In this respect, it brings to mind Russell Hoban's (even darker) Riddley Walker, published just a couple of years later (link). If you want the true meaning of “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short,” this might not be a bad place to begin.

How Could It Be Otherwise?

So they’re selling their stories, and the Brits are peeved, although perhaps not as peeved as yesterday (link—Kevin Drum offers a wry spin here). Let me offer two “on the one hands, one "ironic footnote," one “on the other hand” and an afterthought--

First: these are volunteers, not so? And isn’t this a core problem with a volunteer army? For at least the last couple of hundred years, we have tried to build our armies on models of national pride and some sort of communal loyalty. A volunteer army says (no matter how hard it tries to say otherwise)—at the end of the day it is all about money. We’ll pay you more than you’re getting at home (and if you are lucky, maybe you get out and go to Blackwater). Meanwhile at home, we make much of the fact that there’s no “shared sense of sacrifice” in this war, aside from “support the troops” tee-shirts. But given the framework, how can we expect “sacrifice” on either side?

[Ironic Footnote: It is interesting that while the military moves towards a cash nexus, some of the most successful “private” corporations are those that can build a team spirit, a sense of group loyalty—“balance sheet patriotism,”you might say.]

Second: But it is not just state v. market—states in their own right are in absolute decline. There is hardly a corner of the world where national identity is as strong now as it was 50 years ago. We meet dual nationals, transnational domestic alliances, Chinese restaurants in Manitoba, Black African priests in Ireland. State v. market is one framing narrative. We could just as well speak of state v. warlord, state v. patriarch or state v. (though oddly, this one has more sinister overtones)—state v. “cosmopolitanism.”

But, But, But, But, But: I risk letting myself be misunderstood here. The casual reader could be forgiven for inferring that this is just one more lament for a lost sense of community (“Young folks nowadays…”). It is and it isn’t. Go back 50 years or so to the apogee of the nation-state, and you will recall that it wasn’t such a pretty picture. For bullying arrogance and mind-numbing conformity, there is nothing like national unity. This sense of community may be hard to do without, but it wasn’t much to live with, either.

And an Afterthought: In the end, I wonder how many of the critics are just annoyed that the kids aren’t sharing the wealth.

Being and Doing

The Sunday NYT thumbnails "Jeremy Scahill's muckraking book, 'Blackwater: the Rise of the World's Most Powerful Mercenary Army,'" and specifies two contributions to the language:

"Going Blackwater" refers to the soldiers who flee the armed forces to work for better-paying private security firms. And Scahill employed "keeping your noun alive" this way: "Blackwater guys ... were known for being very, very aggressive, and the whole point of their operation is to keep their noun alive, and their noun was Paul Bremer." It's now Zalmay Khaizad, and so they're going to do everything it taskes not to lose the noun." In other words: You're nobody these days unless you're somebody's noun.

--TBR: Inside the List, New York Times Sunday Book Review 26, April 8, 2007



Saturday, April 07, 2007

Supply Side Seminar

Earlier I gave a Google favorite link to Bruce Bartlett's valediction to supply-side economics (link). Brad DeLong points out that it has morphed into a first-rate on-line seminar (link).

Easter Video

Ezra Klein celebrates Easter with the Life of Brian. Good enough, but I go for something more traditional:



But if you want something even more traditional (link)...

Why I Blog

Why I blog: it's a meme goin' 'round (link). I'm too lazy for a fullscale response so I will steal one from that great Welsh crypto-proto-blogger, Dylan Thomas:
In My Craft or Sullen Art

In my craft or sullen art
Exercised in the still night
When only the moon rages
And the lovers lie abed
With all their griefs in their arms,
I labor by singing light
Not for ambition or bread
Or the strut and trade of charms
On the ivory stages
But for the common wages
Of their most secret heart.

Not for the proud man apart
From the raging moon I write
On these spindrift pages
Nor for the towering dead
With their nightingales and psalms
But for the lovers, their arms
Round the griefs of the ages,
Who pay no praise or wages
Nor heed my craft or art.

As you were, proud men apart, and lovers, get on with it.

Takes All Kinds

I hauled my laptop down to the world's best coffee shop this afternoon, forgetting that Saturday is folkie time. Lots of mandolins, banjos (mostly four-string) a couple of accordians, etc. Simple stuff like "Michael, Row the Boat Ashore." Really sweet and it reminds me of my folkie past (in a previous incarnation)--indeed, a good many of these people are old enough that they might have been there with me.

But not conducive to productivity, so I relocated to the patio. Good move: the weather couldn't have been better, and the music was just far away enough to reduce it to a low mellow hum.

The Kid who Serves the Coffee seemed to be spending a lot of time on the patio, clearing dishes, wiping tables, maybe twiddling her thumbs.

"Getting away from the music?"

She tossed her head.

"When I get home," she said, "I'm going to put on my earphones and play the loudest heavy metal I can find."

Takes all kinds.

Friday, April 06, 2007

Collingwood on Self-Knowledge

R. H. Collingwood approaches knowledge as if it were one of the martial arts:

Without some knowledge of himself [man’s] knowledge of other things is imperfect; for to know something without knowing that one knows it is to only a half-knowing, and to know that one knows is to know oneself. Self-knowledge is desirable and important to man, not only for its own sake, but as a condition without which no other knowledge can be critically justified and securely based. Self-knowledge, here, means not knowledge of man’s bodily nature, his anatomy and physiology; nor even a knowledge of his mind, so far as that consists of feeling, sensation, and emotion; but as knowledge of his knowing faculties, his thought or understanding or reason. How is such knowledge to be attained? It seems an easy matter until we think seriously about it; and then it seems so difficult that we are tempted to think it impossible.

R. G. Collingwood, The Idea of History 205 (Oxford UP paperback ed. 1961)

Barry Goldwater is Messin' With My Head

I’ve been having trouble sleeping this week. I have been absorbed in Rick Perlstein’s Before the Storm, his riveting (okay, a bit overlong) account of the 1964 Presidential Campaign—more precisely of the conservative groundswell that culminated in the nomination of Barry Goldwater. It’s triggering lots of long-forgotten memories and stimulating new insights about stuff I never understood in the first place. In the end, I realize I never knew that much about Goldwater in the first place, and I had pretty much forgotten (among others) Nelson Rockefeller, foremost in a long line of paladins sent forth to save the Eastern Establishment—poor Nelson, who never realized that if you are a billionaire, nobody tells you that your shoes squeak.

Perlstein does some of his best stuff with his vignettes of so many now-forgotten figures who did so much to shape the Goldwater phenomenon. Who now remembers (for example) Clarence Manion, the sidewalk contractor’s son, who made himself a one-man conservative agenda-setter and king-maker (his first choice was not Goldwater, but Orval Faubus—and, come to think of it, who remembers Faubus?). Or Steven Shadegg, the one-man political machine, who put Goldwater into the Senate? Or Clif (one “f”) White, who organized the base and virtually single-handed gave Goldwater the nomination—only to be shunted aside by the candidate himself in favor of the homeboys from Arizona? None of them--Manion, nor Shadegg, nor White--has so much as a Wiki entry today.

This shunting-aside calls attention to one of the notable defects in Goldwater’s character—his crashingly poor judgment in people. It was Goldwater himself who dismissed White and Shadegg in favor of, say, Denison Kitchel , who seemed unable to do anything right, and Dean Burch, who didn’t seem to do much of anything at all. It was Goldwater personally who froze out all the counsels of prudence and good politics as he and a small core of true believers crafted the fatal “acceptance speech” that did so much to seal his fate.

Perlstein’s dominant motif is the blindsiding and ultimate disintegration of the “center-left consensus” that was supposed to have carried us beyond ideology. This is good, but it might gain from some historical perspective—I think pretty much the same sort of rebellion carried Napoleon III into power in 1851, and Kerensky out in 1917. The story also adds perspective to the accounts of the procession of boring, tin-eared candidates who have disappointed the Democrats so often in recent years.

I have to admit that I had pretty much forgotten—mercifully, I guess—the wave raw, angry energy that swept through American politics in the early 60s, culminating in the horrific Republican nominating convention at San Francisco’s Cow Palace in 1964. Most Americans think we live in parlous political times today. I would agree, but I must say that is sobering to reflect that our situation is not really unique. We’ve been here before.

Or in some sense, perhaps, we have been here all along. Most Americans have pretty clearly turned their back on The Incumbent President, but he still clings to his bedrock 33 percent in the polls. How does he do it? I don’t have any glib answer (though I will try to post some tentative thoughts later on). However he does it, we might as well recall that Goldwater never fell any lower—and that his bedrock was, if anything, more angry and assertive than Bush’s base today.

It’s tantalizing to try to compare Goldwater and the Incumbent. I’m not sure it teaches all that much. Goldwater seems to have been, in private matters, a decent and civilized man (he and Rockefeller shared a dislike for Richard Nixon)—The Incumbent has his advocates but on the whole, he seems more given to contention and swagger. There’s plenty of evidence that Goldwater never really wanted to be president—he seems most to have enjoyed flying planes and noodling around with his ham radio. His real skill was serving up to raw meat to the faithful on the rubber chicken circuit—though his campaign speeches were often tedious and off-putting (as a communicator, he wasn’t a patch on Ronald Reagan). The Incumbent appears to have been equally lacking in ambition until someone else put him up to it.

Goldwater and The Incumbent do seem to share some other noteworthy qualities. Apparently both were terrible students, and both seem to have nurtured a profound incuriosity about the great affairs of the Republic they sought to govern (Goldwater may never have read The Conscience of a Conservative, the hugely popular trademark tract that bore his name). But there is one inescapably important difference: The Incumbent made it to the White House; Goldwater went home to Arizona. He's back for the moment, though, messin' with my head.

Thursday, April 05, 2007

Life Imitates Art Dept.

Guilty, your honor: I watched another episode of Las Vegas last night, with James Caan. Renewing my conviction that it someone one should cross it with the Love Boat and hatch an ocean-going spinoff. And from this morning's news, they could use this new plotline.

Afterthought: Might be good to catch it now before the casinos all disappear.

Another confession: I always thought this was one really cool movie.

The Biblical Approach

A Kentucky outfit reports great success at curing sex addiction with a "Biblical approach."

Me, I'm just waiting for the video version of this.

Update: turns out I don't need to wait (link) (link) (link) (link)

Wednesday, April 04, 2007

CNNS Finds Backbone! Film at 11!

I know that everybody and his aunt Maude has already weighed in on John McCain’s “Safe Streets Baghdad” meme (see, e.g., links), but there is one wrinkle that doesn’t seem to me to have got the attention it deserves. That would be the extraordinary Monday night blowback from the entire CNN operation to tell McCain that we had it right the first time (here’s a transcript).

Am I the only one that finds this remarkable? The fracas kicked off, of course, a week ago, in a moment of coup de theatre involving McCain and correspondent Michael Ware (transcript – scroll down past Anna Nicole Smith). It was an entertaining moment and stuff like this happens. But one – I – would have expected the suits to be all over this one, falling all over themselves to make nice with McCain and otherwise to cement their reputation as a journalistic lapdog. Instead—this.

Others have suggested that McCain’s new-found truculence against the press is a campaign strategy all its own (“a cunning plan?”). I suppose a febrile imagination can conjure up the image of Ware and McCain hunkered down in the dark corner of some out-of-the-way saloon (“you say this, and then I go ballistic and I say that..”). I’m not that febrile. But I admit I don’t have any ready or obvious explanation why these guys got their back up as fast and as far as they did.

Ne Exeat

The must-read daily newsletter of the American Bankruptcy Institute yesterday linked to this extraordinary piece about debt among the military (link). Takeaway point: "The number of U.S. troops barred from overseas duty because of deep personal debt has climbed substantially in recent years...." [The linked account credits the Associated Press, but I never saw it in any general news source].

The index here is the security clearance. Apparently if the service person has too much debt, he loses his clearance--and the number of clearances revoked for financial reasons grew more than nine times between 2002 to 2005--from 284 to 2,654 (and apparently still climbing).

Apparently if you lose your security clearance, you may lose your chance to go overseas. As Buce's Wichita bureau points out, there's a rich irony here: as a device for getting out of overseas service, buying a new Hummer sure beats shooting yourself in the foot.

Mythical Myths About Consumer Credit

James Scurlock, the MaxedOut man, has a nice non-technical "executive summary" up at MSNBC (link) on the current consumer debt bomb, but I think he makes two errors.
Here's one:

MYTH THREE: Bankruptcy provides an easy out.

This is the counsel of despair. Bankrutpcy is not as easy as it used to be, but the bottom line remains the same: if you jump over the (considerable) hurdles, you get to insulate post-bankruptcy wages from pre-bankruptcy claims. And my own guess is that Congress may very well come back to the drawing board after a year or two and roll back some of the more aggressive anti-debtor innovations.

And here's the other:

LAST MYTH: If we just taught people how to balance their checkbooks and read their credit-card agreement or their exotic mortgage, the problems would go away.

More despair. Granted, these guys do everything they can to conceal the truth from you. And you may not be able to nail down every penny. But you know the outlines: if you've got money 0n deposit at four percent while you pay 18 percent on your credit cards, then something is out of whack. Indeed, this is an error that goes back to the birth of the Consumer Credit Protection Act in 1969. That is: a fair number of borrowers do not know the terms of their deals. But a non-trivial cohort know in principle what is expensive and what is cheap, even if they can't do all the arithmetic.

[And BTW--99.99 percent of all computers come with a spreadsheet. Even if the borrower can't figure out how to use it, his lawyer certainly should--including, not least, the cadre of talented and disciplined consumer bankruptcy attorneys who play an important roles in keeping the bums honest.]

Dick Morris, Call Your Publisher

I wonder how soon we will be hearing from all the pundits who have been assuring us these pat several years that Hillary had a lock on it because nobody could touch her in the money race. Oh, wait...

Afterthought: Actually, I still think Obama is an empty suit--putting me more or less in the same camp with Rep. Charles Rangel (D. NY), who told Tim Russert on Sunday that he (Rangel) had encouraged Obama to run, but that he (Rangel) was sticking with "my Senator." I've been reading Rick Perlstein's riveting Before the Storm, about the Goldwater fiasco in 1964. Right now it's spring, 1964: I'm watching President Rockefeller, President Scranton, President Lodge and President (George) Romney as they strive for the honor of saving the Republic(ans) from the depradations of the Arizona cowboy. I'm still betting the Repubs wind up with Mike Huckabee and for the right odds, I'd even take a flutter for the Democrats with Bill Richardson.

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Who Would JP Morgan Invite?

My friend Joel has been pestering me about the subprime meltdown: how will it happen? What are the mechanics? If JP Morgan wanted to bring the folks together on his yacht and strongarm a settlement, whom would he invite?

Elaborating--in the old days, Jimmy Stewart made the loan across the desk in a Greek revival bank building next to the courthouse square. He might be able to see the property from the front door, but at any rate, if the loan went sour, he personally was involved in the foreclosure. The best fertilizer, as Lyndon Johnson used to say, is the farmer's footsteps walking over the land.

These days, of course, it is nothing like that. The loan is bundled up with a thousand other loans into "Real Estate Portfolio #34," and sold for cash to, oh say to the pension fund.

But what happens when the loan goes bad? Surely the pension fund does not run the foreclosure. Who would JP Morgan invite to his yacht?

My first thought: you need to find the person who has the incentive to maximize the value of the loan package, whether performing or otherwise. That would mean, inter alia, that somebody would be motivated to renegotiate with this defaulting debtor, now, if renegotiating was the best way to maximize value.

I tried the question on my friend Ignoto, who has a lot more experience than I do on the issue. Ignoto said:

[Who will JP Morgan invite?] No one. The "servicing" of these mortgages was farmed out (or retained) when they were securitized, and my experience ... is that there is a huge disconnect between the traditional ownership decisions and the day-to-day collection (or not) of the payments. Put another way, I don't think the agent has instructions from the principal, and I don't think the principal knows that they own the problem.

Comment: He is probably onto something here, but I'd still like to know more. Seems to me it might depend on the agent's compensation package. If he is getting paid by the week, he'll just go by the book (the way the IRS used to do, before they got religion)--and he'll leave a lot of money on the table. If he gets paid for performance, why then we might expect a different result. My guess--supported, at least obliquely, by Ignoto's email, is that so far we haven't identified anybody with the right motivation.

But Will It See Me Out?

A while back, a dentist was positioning a new crown on my old and crumbling jaw. "This one will see you out," he said.

Last week I found a tooth crown in my salmon BLT. It was my own crown, but not the one under warranty, so I dropped by the dentist again this morning to consider my options. He said I could just let it be, or he could build a bridge. Or, he said, he could fit me out with an implant, but it would cost me about $3,000, and my insurance would not pay.

Three thousand dollars. I think that is about 60 times what my father paid to Dr. Burpee to bring me into the world in the first place. But it would give me a reason for living: I'd have to amortize the tooth.

And I remember the lady who wrote to Dear Abby asking if it was true that they take all the gold out of your teeth when you die. She said she was worried because she heard you can't get good dental care in heaven. . .

Monday, April 02, 2007

We Yield to ADHD So You Don't Have To

Everybody else is so clever today:

  • Painting the Mona Lisa (Boing Boing).
  • Campaign money game (Hotline).
  • True but irrelevant (Phil Carter).
  • Peanut butter (Improbable Research)
  • Lizard people (Sawicky).
  • It was an April Fool’s joke (Froomkin).
  • "The Great Pan is Dead"

    Epitherses ... said that designing a voyage to Italy, he embarked himself on a vessel well laden both with goods and passengers. About the evening the vessel was becalmed about the Isles Echinades, whereupon their ship drove with the tide till it was carried near the Isles of Paxi; when immediately a voice was heard by most of the passengers (who were then awake, and taking a cup after supper) calling unto one Thamus, and that with so loud a voice as made all the company amazed; which Thamus was a mariner of Egypt, whose name was scarcely known in the ship. He returned no answer to the first calls; but at the third he replied, Here! here! I am the man. Then the voice said aloud to him, When you are arrived at Palodes, take care to make it known that the God Pan is dead. Epitherses told us, this voice did much astonish all that heard it, and caused much arguing whether this voice was to be obeyed or slighted. Thamus, for his part, was resolved, if the wind permitted, to sail by the place without saying a word; but if the wind ceased and there ensued a calm, to speak and cry out as loud as he was able what he was enjoined. Being come to Palodes, there was no wind stirring, and the sea was as smooth as glass. Whereupon Thamus standing on the deck, with his face towards the land, uttered with a loud voice his message, saying, The great Pan is dead. He had no sooner said this, but they heard a dreadful noise, not only of one, but of several, who, to their thinking, groaned and lamented with a kind of astonishment. And there being many persons in the ship, an account of this was soon spread over Rome, which made Tiberius the Emperor send for Thamus; and he seemed to give such heed to what he told him, that he earnestly enquired who this Pan was; and the learned men about him gave in their judgments, that it was the son of Mercury by Penelope.

    --Plutarch, Why the Oracles Cease to Give Answers
    (R. Midgley, trans., 1870,
    reprinted in R. Stoneman, A Literary Companion to Travel in Greece 25-6 (Penguin , 1984)


    I have been trying to find out more about the great Pan and his story. So far, the best I can do is a the poem, On the Morning of Christ's Nativity by John Milton (1629). Stanza XIX reads:

    The Oracles are dumb,
    No voice or hideous hum

    Runs through the arched roof in words deceiving.

    Apollo from his shrine
    Can no more divine

    With hollow shriek the steep of Delphos leaving.

    No nightly trance, or breathed spell,
    Inspires the pale-ey'd Priest from the prophetic cell.

    In his complete Milton, Merritt Y. Hughes says "Many details of the flight of the pagan gods seemed to A. S.Cook to come from the Apotheosis of Prudentius or the Parthenicae (III, i) of Mantuan." See M. Hughes, John Milton: Complete Poems and Major Prose 48 (1957). Are there other references?

    Say Again?

    The Alabama bureau reads the label on the pet food package:
    a.. 95% Meat, 5% fruits & vegetables
    b.. Grain-free
    c.. Made with human grade ingredients
    d.. Pasture-fed beef
    e.. Complete and balanced for all life stages
    Uh--human grade ingredients?

    Sunday, April 01, 2007

    I Suppose This Might Be...

    An April Fool joke (link).

    Magna Carta, We Hardly Knew Ye...

    Is it just me, or is anyone else frosted by Monica Gooding’s claim of her Fifth Amendment privilege—not that she claimed it, but the insolent, smarmy, in-your-face way that she claimed it? I quote from the letter sent to the committee by her counsel (posted in full here):

    [T]he public record is clear that certain members of the Senate Judiciary Committee have already reached conclusions about the matter under investigstion and the veracity of testimony provided by the Department of Justice to date. … [T]he Committee’s Ranking Member, Senator Specter, has suggested that senator Schumer is using the hearings to promote his political party. … Senator Specter has publicly raised questions about the basic fairness of the Committee’s inquiry and lack of “objectivity.” … The potential for legal jeopardy for Ms. Goodling from even her most truthful and accurate testimony under these circumstances is very real.” … Where the Committee, its Chairman, and prominent members have already reached conclusions about the matter under investigation and the veracity of the Department’s testimony, and where the forum is politically charged and lacks fundamental fairness s questioned by the Ranking Member, and most importantly … we have advised Ms. Gooding (and she has decided) to invoke her Constitutional right not to answer any questions.”

    Translated: our claim of the privilege is the sheerest fiction, a pure technicality without any basis in fact. But we won’t cooperate because we don’t like the court.

    Well, of course not—who does? I must remember that the next time I get a traffic ticket: I don’t think I’m going to show up, because you might convict me.

    I must say I think it is pretty rich for anyone in this lot to talk about “fairness” when they’ve spent the last six years trying to repeal Magna Carta. On the other hand, I suppose I should give her points for a kind of sincerity: if government is just an instrument of personal gain, why then it makes perfect sense to treat it with a kind of manipulative cynicism.

    Fn.: I cheated. I edited some good stuff out of the quotes above. For example, the letter also said:

    [I]t has come to our attention that a senior Department of Justice official has privately told Senator Schumer that he (the official) was not entirely candid in his report to the Committee, and that the official allegedly claimed that others, including our client, did not inform him of certain pertinent facts.

    Translated: Oops. Maybe we have a good Fifth Amendment claim after all. Well, all right then.

    Afterthought: Somehow, until just now I had overlooked this. Had I seen it before I drafted this note, I might have saved myself the bother. But my spleen does feel better.

    Update: I'm watching Sen. Patrick Leahy with Tim Russert as he puts a somewhat different spin on this matter. He says he reads her as saying that she doesn't want to have to testify because "she might lie," i.e., in testimony in the future. Leahy, surely one of the most circumspect of Senators, rightly found this proposition absurd. FWIW, Sen. Orrin Hatch, in the same discussion, was as shrill and near to losing it as I've ever seen him.


    150 Graduates?

    My friend John, who is up early for a Sunday morning, reports that there are 150 graduates of Pat Robertson's Regents University in the Bush Administration (link). It's a fascinating datum in any event, but I am not quite sure how to evaluate it. The original source appears to be Regents' own website (link). Have we any particular reason to believe they are telling the truth here? How to way the odds of truth versus, say, naked marketing hype?

    Fn: The story also says that a Regents grad provided a private jet to fly Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia down to Regents. But the campus is in Virginia Beach, right? That's a three-hour, 43 minute hop down the interstate from DC (map). The flight was 32 minutes, according to the sponsor (link). Considering airport hassles, was flying that-all much faster than driving?

    Well, I Guess I Never Thought it was Original

    but I must say they know a good name when they see one (link):

    End of an Argument...

    First line of what is, to all appearances, an authentic obit from last Wednesday's Bangor [Maine} Times (link):
    CASTINE - Sara Katherine Petterson Brouillard, 55, passed peacefully Wednesday March 21, 2007, at a Bangor hospital, after a brief, courageous battle with cancer and a long and aggravating marriage to Paul Brouillard.
    Thanks, John.